Should a New Publix-Anchored Center Shift How Investors View St. Joe's (JOE) Retail Strategy?

• The St. Joe Company recently began developing a Publix Super Market at its Watersound West Bay Center in Panama City Beach, planning a 50,000-square-foot store with pharmacy, deli, bakery and adjacent liquor store alongside additional leasable retail space.
• This project deepens St. Joe’s commercial leasing base while tying its retail footprint directly to the growing Latitude Margaritaville Watersound and Ward Creek residential communities along the State Road 79 corridor.
• We’ll now look at how anchoring Watersound West Bay Center with a Publix grocery store could influence St. Joe’s broader investment narrative.

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What Is St. Joe's Investment Narrative?

To own St. Joe, you have to believe in its ability to convert a concentrated Northwest Florida land bank into recurring, higher margin income through communities, resorts and now a growing base of leased retail. The Watersound West Bay Publix project fits that story neatly, reinforcing the shift from one-off land sales toward long-term cash flows as the State Road 79 corridor fills in with homes, medical facilities and services. In the short term, this announcement probably does not change the headline catalysts around housing demand, interest rates and St. Joe’s use of debt, but it adds incremental visibility to future commercial leasing. The main trade-off remains: attractive past earnings growth and ongoing buybacks on one side, and a leveraged, regionally concentrated model that still relies on continued local absorption on the other.

However, one key local-market risk here is easy to overlook, yet investors should not. St. Joe's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 23%. Find out what it's worth.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s single fair value estimate clusters around US$80, yet your view may differ as you weigh new leasing catalysts from Watersound West Bay against St. Joe’s regional and balance sheet risks.

Explore another fair value estimate on St. Joe - why the stock might be worth as much as 30% more than the current price!

Build Your Own St. Joe Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your St. Joe research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free St. Joe research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate St. Joe's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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