Stock Analysis

We're Not Very Worried About Stoke Therapeutics' (NASDAQ:STOK) Cash Burn Rate

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NasdaqGS:STOK
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We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Nonetheless, only a fool would ignore the risk that a loss making company burns through its cash too quickly.

So should Stoke Therapeutics (NASDAQ:STOK) shareholders be worried about its cash burn? In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

Check out our latest analysis for Stoke Therapeutics

When Might Stoke Therapeutics Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is the amount of time it would take to burn through its cash reserves at its current cash burn rate. In June 2021, Stoke Therapeutics had US$251m in cash, and was debt-free. In the last year, its cash burn was US$59m. So it had a cash runway of about 4.3 years from June 2021. There's no doubt that this is a reassuringly long runway. Depicted below, you can see how its cash holdings have changed over time.

debt-equity-history-analysis
NasdaqGS:STOK Debt to Equity History September 30th 2021

How Is Stoke Therapeutics' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Stoke Therapeutics didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. Nonetheless, we can still examine its cash burn trajectory as part of our assessment of its cash burn situation. With the cash burn rate up 45% in the last year, it seems that the company is ratcheting up investment in the business over time. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but investors should be mindful of the fact that will shorten the cash runway. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

How Hard Would It Be For Stoke Therapeutics To Raise More Cash For Growth?

Given its cash burn trajectory, Stoke Therapeutics shareholders may wish to consider how easily it could raise more cash, despite its solid cash runway. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. We can compare a company's cash burn to its market capitalisation to get a sense for how many new shares a company would have to issue to fund one year's operations.

Since it has a market capitalisation of US$937m, Stoke Therapeutics' US$59m in cash burn equates to about 6.3% of its market value. Given that is a rather small percentage, it would probably be really easy for the company to fund another year's growth by issuing some new shares to investors, or even by taking out a loan.

So, Should We Worry About Stoke Therapeutics' Cash Burn?

As you can probably tell by now, we're not too worried about Stoke Therapeutics' cash burn. In particular, we think its cash runway stands out as evidence that the company is well on top of its spending. While its increasing cash burn wasn't great, the other factors mentioned in this article more than make up for weakness on that measure. Looking at all the measures in this article, together, we're not worried about its rate of cash burn; the company seems well on top of its medium-term spending needs. Separately, we looked at different risks affecting the company and spotted 5 warning signs for Stoke Therapeutics (of which 2 are a bit unpleasant!) you should know about.

Of course Stoke Therapeutics may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

What are the risks and opportunities for Stoke Therapeutics?

Stoke Therapeutics, Inc., an early-stage biopharmaceutical company, develops novel antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) medicines to treat the underlying causes of severe genetic diseases in the United States.

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Rewards

  • Revenue is forecast to grow 53.49% per year

Risks

  • Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

  • Volatile share price over the past 3 months

  • Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

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