Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRPT) Consensus Forecasts Have Become A Little Darker Since Its Latest Report

Sarepta Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SRPT) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 5.8% to US$129 in the week after its latest yearly results. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$1.2b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 9.2% smaller than expected, with Sarepta Therapeutics losing US$5.80 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Sarepta Therapeutics

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Sarepta Therapeutics from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$1.87b in 2024. If met, it would imply a sizeable 50% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Sarepta Therapeutics is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$2.44 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.00b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.63 in 2024. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a large cut to earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$164 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Sarepta Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$224 and the most bearish at US$128 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Sarepta Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 50% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 27% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 17% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Sarepta Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Sarepta Therapeutics going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Sarepta Therapeutics that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.