ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY): Assessing Valuation After European Patent Win Secures Neffy Exclusivity Through 2039

ARS Pharmaceuticals (SPRY) just received a boost as the European Patent Office confirmed all claims in its key neffy nasal spray patent. This strengthens its exclusive rights in over 30 European countries through at least 2039.

See our latest analysis for ARS Pharmaceuticals.

ARS’s confirmed European patent adds to a string of encouraging developments this year, such as its $250 million loan deal and steady progress in neffy’s U.S. launch. Even so, the 1-year total shareholder return is down 22.0%. Momentum appears to be increasing, however, as a 13% share price gain in the past month suggests investors are responding to signs of accelerating commercial adoption and stronger intellectual property protections.

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But with ARS shares still well below analysts’ targets despite new IP wins and commercial momentum, investors have to ask whether the stock is undervalued today or if the market has already priced in the next stage of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 63.5% Undervalued

Based on the most followed narrative, ARS Pharmaceuticals is trading far below its estimated fair value. The last close of $11.32 is well under the fair value implied by bold commercial growth and profit catalysts expected in the years ahead.

Growing pediatric and school-based adoption, supported by program engagement, recent pediatric dosing approvals, and legislative updates in multiple states, positions neffy to capture untapped patient pools. This is expected to increase revenue scale and support durable earnings growth as the addressable market broadens.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious about which massive revenue inflection and margin shift is driving this huge value gap? The central thesis behind this valuation is that rapid sales growth coincides with a margin turnaround rarely seen outside tech. What key assumptions must materialize to bring that fair value to reality? You’ll only find out by exploring the full narrative.

Result: Fair Value of $31 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ARS’s heavy reliance on neffy and rising drug price pressures could quickly undermine momentum if competition or regulatory hurdles become more challenging.

Find out about the key risks to this ARS Pharmaceuticals narrative.

Build Your Own ARS Pharmaceuticals Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can shape your own view and build your narrative in just minutes, so why not Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ARS Pharmaceuticals.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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