REGENXBIO Inc. Just Missed EPS By 64%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's shaping up to be a tough period for REGENXBIO Inc. (NASDAQ:RGNX), which a week ago released some disappointing first-quarter results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Unfortunately, REGENXBIO delivered a serious earnings miss. Revenues of US$89m were 16% below expectations, and statutory earnings per share of US$0.12 missed estimates by 64%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on REGENXBIO after the latest results.

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Following the latest results, REGENXBIO's eleven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$340.1m in 2025. This would be a sizeable 117% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 94% to US$0.19. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$325.3m and US$0.37 per share in losses. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about REGENXBIO's future following the latest consensus numbers, with a very promising decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

View our latest analysis for REGENXBIO

Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$32.17, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic REGENXBIO analyst has a price target of US$52.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$13.00. With such a wide range in price targets, analysts are almost certainly betting on widely divergent outcomes in the underlying business. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that REGENXBIO is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to display 181% annualised growth until the end of 2025. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 7.8% annual decline over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 17% annually. Not only are REGENXBIO's revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on REGENXBIO. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple REGENXBIO analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for REGENXBIO you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.