Analysts Are More Bearish On uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) Than They Used To Be

Today is shaping up negative for uniQure N.V. (NASDAQ:QURE) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the 16 analysts covering uniQure, is for revenues of US$107m in 2023, which would reflect a small 4.1% reduction in uniQure's sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$4.34. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$238m and losses of US$1.29 per share in 2023. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.

View our latest analysis for uniQure

The consensus price target fell 15% to €35.95, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for uniQure's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on uniQure, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €55.88 and the most bearish at €13.97 per share. We would probably assign less value to the forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily on the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 8.0% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 43% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 15% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - uniQure is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at uniQure. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that uniQure's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. With a serious cut to this year's expectations and a falling price target, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were becoming wary of uniQure.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple uniQure analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.