Bearish: Analysts Just Cut Their Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) Revenue and EPS estimates

One thing we could say about the analysts on Ocular Therapeutix, Inc. (NASDAQ:OCUL) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.

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Following the latest downgrade, the eleven analysts covering Ocular Therapeutix provided consensus estimates of US$54m revenue in 2025, which would reflect a considerable 9.5% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are expected to increase substantially, hitting US$1.44 per share. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$71m and US$1.22 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

View our latest analysis for Ocular Therapeutix

The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$17.50, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 12% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 27% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.4% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Ocular Therapeutix's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Ocular Therapeutix. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Ocular Therapeutix.

Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Ocular Therapeutix analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.