Should Natera’s (NTRA) New Share Offering and Signatera Lymphoma Data Require Action From Investors?

• Natera recently filed two shelf registrations to offer a combined 2,040,691 shares of common stock worth about US$478.72 million, alongside an employee stock plan–related tranche, while also preparing to present new clinical data on its Signatera test at the 2025 ASH Annual Meeting.
• The upcoming lymphoma data for Signatera, including earlier recurrence detection than imaging and use in NCCN-endorsed ctDNA-MRD assessment, may further strengthen its role in hematologic cancer management.
• We’ll now examine how Signatera’s expanded lymphoma evidence base could influence Natera’s broader investment narrative and future growth drivers.

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Natera Investment Narrative Recap

To own Natera, you need to believe molecular diagnostics like Signatera can keep gaining traction in oncology and women’s health while the company moves closer to profitability. The new lymphoma data at ASH 2025 looks directionally supportive of that thesis, while the fresh US$478.72 million shelf registrations highlight the near term trade off between funding growth and the risk of further dilution for shareholders in a still unprofitable business.

Among recent announcements, the upcoming Signatera data in lymphoma stands out as most relevant here, because it directly ties to one of Natera’s core growth drivers: expanding clinical validation and guideline support for MRD testing across tumor types. If the evidence presented at ASH reinforces Signatera’s role in routine lymphoma care, it could help underpin payer adoption and test volumes, which matters even more as the company issues new equity to support ongoing R&D and commercialization.

Yet while the clinical story is improving, investors should be aware that rising R&D and SG&A spend could prolong the path to sustainable profitability, especially if...

Read the full narrative on Natera (it's free!)

Natera's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $110.9 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Natera's forecasts yield a $234.68 fair value, a 4% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Eight fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$65 to US$268, showing how far apart individual views on Natera can be. Against that backdrop, the company’s heavy investment in trials and commercial expansion, and the risk that these costs weigh on margins longer than expected, gives you another reason to compare several perspectives before deciding how its growth story might play out.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Natera - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Natera Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Natera research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Natera research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Natera's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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