Natera (NasdaqGS:NTRA) - Share price, News & Analysis

NTRA fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	0/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	0/6

NTRA Stock Overview

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide.

Rewards

Revenue is forecast to grow 18.25% per year

Risk Analysis

Highly volatile share price over the past 3 months

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Shareholders have been diluted in the past year

Natera Competitors

Exact Sciences

NasdaqGS:EXAS

US$8.5b

Twist Bioscience

NasdaqGS:TWST

US$2.0b

Myriad Genetics

NasdaqGS:MYGN

US$1.7b

CareDx

NasdaqGM:CDNA

US$1.3b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Natera
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	US$37.53
52 Week High	US$129.09
52 Week Low	US$26.10
Beta	1.23
1 Month Change	-5.40%
3 Month Change	-42.47%
1 Year Change	-58.10%
3 Year Change	60.66%
5 Year Change	266.50%
Change since IPO	65.04%

Shareholder Returns

	NTRA	US Biotechs	US Market
7D	4.5%	0.4%	1.0%
1Y	-58.1%	-22.1%	-15.1%

Return vs Industry: NTRA underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -22.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: NTRA underperformed the US Market which returned -13.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is NTRA's price volatile compared to industry and market?
NTRA volatility
NTRA Average Weekly Movement	17.5%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement	12.4%
Market Average Movement	7.8%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market	16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market	2.9%

Stable Share Price: NTRA is more volatile than 90% of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 17% a week.

Volatility Over Time: NTRA's weekly volatility has increased from 11% to 17% over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2003	2,670	Steve Chapman	https://www.natera.com

Natera, Inc., a diagnostics company, develops and commercializes molecular testing services worldwide. It offers Panorama, a non-invasive prenatal test that screens for chromosomal abnormalities of a fetus with a blood draw from the mother, as well as twin pregnancies for zygosity; Vistara, a single-gene mutations screening test to identify single-gene disorder; Horizon carrier screening to determine carrier status for various genetic diseases; and Spectrum to identify chromosomal anomalies or inherited genetic conditions during an in vitro fertilization cycle. The company also provides Anora miscarriage test products to analyze fetal chromosomes to understand the cause of miscarriage; and non-invasive paternity testing products to determine paternity by gestation using a blood draw from the pregnant mother and alleged father.

Natera Fundamentals Summary

How do Natera's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
NTRA fundamental statistics
Market Cap	US$3.61b
Earnings (TTM)	-US$546.46m
Revenue (TTM)	US$667.30m

5.4x

P/S Ratio

-6.6x

P/E Ratio

Is NTRA overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
NTRA income statement (TTM)
Revenue	US$667.30m
Cost of Revenue	US$354.82m
Gross Profit	US$312.48m
Other Expenses	US$858.94m
Earnings	-US$546.46m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-5.67
Gross Margin	46.83%
Net Profit Margin	-81.89%
Debt/Equity Ratio	61.0%

How did NTRA perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Valuation

Is Natera undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PE vs Industry
PE vs Market
PEG Ratio
PB vs Industry

6.66x

Price to Book (PB) ratio

Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate NTRA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate NTRA's fair value for valuation analysis.

Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: NTRA is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US Biotechs industry average.

PE vs Market: NTRA is unprofitable, so we can't compare its Price-To-Earnings Ratio to the US market.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate NTRA's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: NTRA is overvalued based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (6.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (1.4x).

Future Growth

How is Natera forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 12 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

17.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: NTRA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: NTRA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: NTRA is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: NTRA's revenue (18.3% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the US market (7.7% per year).

High Growth Revenue: NTRA's revenue (18.3% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: NTRA is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

Past Performance

How has Natera performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-31.3%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: NTRA is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: NTRA is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: NTRA is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 31.3% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare NTRA's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: NTRA is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (96.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: NTRA has a negative Return on Equity (-100.76%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Financial Health

How is Natera's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: NTRA's short term assets ($980.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($231.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: NTRA's short term assets ($980.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($371.3M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: NTRA has more cash than its total debt.

Reducing Debt: NTRA's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 67.8% to 61% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: NTRA has sufficient cash runway for more than a year based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: NTRA has sufficient cash runway for 1.9 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 31.3% each year.

Dividend

What is Natera current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate NTRA's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate NTRA's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NTRA's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if NTRA's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as NTRA has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

3.3yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Steve Chapman (42 yo)

3.33yrs

Tenure

US$23,343,147

Compensation

Mr. Steven Leonard Chapman, also known as Steve, has been Chief Executive Officer, President and Director at Natera, Inc. since January 02, 2019. Mr. Chapman served as Chief Operating Officer of Natera, In...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Steve's total compensation ($USD23.34M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD6.91M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Steve's compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: NTRA's management team is considered experienced (3.3 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: NTRA's board of directors are considered experienced (5.3 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: NTRA insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 9.9%.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/05/25 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/05/25 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31