Natera (NTRA) Is Up 7.3% After Launching Fetal Focus and Raising 2025 Revenue Guidance

• Natera announced second quarter 2025 results, reporting revenue of US$546.6 million and expanding its annual revenue guidance by US$80 million, while also introducing Fetal Focus, a new noninvasive prenatal test for inherited conditions backed by clinical trial data.
• The addition of Fetal Focus addresses a key unmet need in prenatal testing, potentially strengthening Natera's competitive position and appeal with both physicians and patients.
• We'll explore how the launch of Fetal Focus and raised guidance impact Natera’s investment outlook in molecular diagnostics.

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Natera Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Natera shareholder right now, you need conviction in the company’s ability to grow its leadership in molecular diagnostics amid growing competition, while weathering persistent losses as it invests heavily in R&D and commercial infrastructure. The recent launch of Fetal Focus, the new prenatal test for inherited conditions, could give Natera an edge and support the main short-term catalyst of gaining physician adoption, but rising net losses remain the key operational risk; the impact may not be material in the near term given ongoing expenses.

Among recent announcements, Natera’s increase of its annual revenue guidance by US$80 million stands out, reflecting confidence in commercial execution despite the company not yet achieving profitability. This uptick in outlook may offer some reassurance to investors focused on revenue momentum, even as legal and regulatory challenges, as well as intensifying competition, continue to pose ongoing external risks.

By contrast, investors should be aware that sharply higher R&D spending and legal expenses could still limit...

Read the full narrative on Natera (it's free!)

Natera's outlook envisions $3.0 billion in revenue and $108.6 million in earnings by 2028. This relies on a forecast annual revenue growth rate of 15.1% and a $361.8 million increase in earnings from the current figure of -$253.2 million.

Uncover how Natera's forecasts yield a $198.58 fair value, a 22% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Private estimates of Natera’s fair value in the Simply Wall St Community span from US$49.54 to US$198.58 across six perspectives, reflecting sharply different expectations. While many anticipate ongoing revenue growth, competition from AI-driven diagnostics could threaten long-term performance and set the stage for differing investment outcomes.

Explore 6 other fair value estimates on Natera - why the stock might be worth as much as 22% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Natera Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Natera research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Natera research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Natera's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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