Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its Nabriva Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:NBRV) Estimates For 2022

One thing we could say about the analysts on Nabriva Therapeutics plc (NASDAQ:NBRV) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. There was a fairly draconian cut to their revenue estimates, perhaps an implicit admission that previous forecasts were much too optimistic.

After this downgrade, Nabriva Therapeutics' dual analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$44m in 2022. This would be a sizeable 52% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 23% to US$0.67. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$53m and losses of US$0.63 per share in 2022. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

Check out our latest analysis for Nabriva Therapeutics

The consensus price target fell 50% to US$2.00, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Nabriva Therapeutics' valuation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Nabriva Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 52% annualised growth to the end of 2022 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 21% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 4.2% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Nabriva Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at Nabriva Therapeutics. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Nabriva Therapeutics going forwards.

There might be good reason for analyst bearishness towards Nabriva Therapeutics, like a short cash runway. For more information, you can click here to discover this and the 3 other warning signs we've identified.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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