Need To Know: The Consensus Just Cut Its Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) Estimates For 2024

Today is shaping up negative for Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to next year's forecasts. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the latest downgrade, the 22 analysts covering Moderna provided consensus estimates of US$5.0b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a disturbing 45% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 40% to US$5.44 per share. Yet before this consensus update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$6.0b and losses of US$5.44 per share in 2024. So there's definitely been a change in sentiment in this update, with the analysts administering a substantial haircut to next year's revenue estimates, while at the same time holding losses per share steady.

Check out our latest analysis for Moderna

The consensus price target fell 11% to US$155, with the analysts clearly concerned about the weaker revenue outlook and expectation of ongoing losses.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 38% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 57% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Moderna is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Moderna after today.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Moderna analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.