Moderna (MRNA): Assessing Valuation Following Strong Clinical Data and Regulatory Wins for Updated Spikevax Vaccine

Moderna (MRNA) is in the spotlight following its announcement of strong new clinical data for the updated Spikevax COVID-19 vaccine, specifically targeting the LP.8.1 variant. According to the company, the new formulation generated an 8-fold increase in neutralizing antibodies in high-risk groups, spanning both younger adults with risk factors and all adults over 65. Backed by FDA approval for expanded use, as well as regulatory green lights in several international markets, these results have sparked fresh debate about the stock's future path.

This latest news lands at a time when investor interest in Moderna is reawakening, even as its share price continues to reflect broad skepticism. Over the past year, the stock has fallen 64% and is down 41% year-to-date, a sharp contrast to its earlier pandemic-driven growth story. Despite the meaningful bump from the recent vaccine update, momentum has struggled to build as the market weighs new opportunities in mRNA technology against ongoing financial losses and growing competition, particularly with BioNTech’s push into cancer immunotherapy and emerging biotech players securing fresh capital.

Given the divergence between strong clinical advancements and the trajectory of the stock, is Moderna a bargain for investors at this level, or is the current price already baking in its growth prospects?

Most Popular Narrative: 85.8% Undervalued

According to the most popular narrative, Moderna may be significantly undervalued given the scale of its innovative investments and its transition beyond COVID-19 vaccines.

Despite the defunding of US governmental research and health services, Moderna remains in a commanding fundamental position. The company that made its name during the COVID-19 pandemic developing and manufacturing vaccines for the disease at breakneck pace also happened to have bagged a historic windfall in exchange for its performance. Less well-known is how Moderna reinvested the windfall in the wake of its success. The company has spent years plowing its profits into new innovations while maintaining a relatively pristine balance sheet for a company as large as it is.

Something big might be brewing beneath the surface at Moderna. The narrative points to a pipeline packed with potential and a transition phase that could reset the company’s place in biotech. Wondering how aggressive revenue growth and margin assumptions shape this sky-high valuation? The full breakdown reveals what makes this undervalued story stand out in a crowded sector.

Result: Fair Value of $175 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, risks remain, including potential setbacks in clinical trials and continued revenue pressure if non-COVID product launches do not gain traction.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Another View: SWS DCF Model Weighs In

While some see Moderna as undervalued given its future growth hopes, our SWS DCF model faces a challenge, as there is a lack of reliable inputs right now for a fair value estimate. Could this uncertainty signal hidden risks or unexpected upside ahead?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Moderna for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If you think there is more to Moderna’s story, or want to build your own thesis from the data, you can craft your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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