We're Hopeful That MediciNova (NASDAQ:MNOV) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

We can readily understand why investors are attracted to unprofitable companies. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. Having said that, unprofitable companies are risky because they could potentially burn through all their cash and become distressed.

So, the natural question for MediciNova (NASDAQ:MNOV) shareholders is whether they should be concerned by its rate of cash burn. In this article, we define cash burn as its annual (negative) free cash flow, which is the amount of money a company spends each year to fund its growth. First, we'll determine its cash runway by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves.

See our latest analysis for MediciNova

When Might MediciNova Run Out Of Money?

You can calculate a company's cash runway by dividing the amount of cash it has by the rate at which it is spending that cash. As at December 2023, MediciNova had cash of US$51m and no debt. In the last year, its cash burn was US$7.5m. Therefore, from December 2023 it had 6.8 years of cash runway. Even though this is but one measure of the company's cash burn, the thought of such a long cash runway warms our bellies in a comforting way. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

How Is MediciNova's Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

In our view, MediciNova doesn't yet produce significant amounts of operating revenue, since it reported just US$1.0m in the last twelve months. Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis we'll focus on how the cash burn is tracking. While it hardly paints a picture of imminent growth, the fact that it has reduced its cash burn by 42% over the last year suggests some degree of prudence. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Hard Would It Be For MediciNova To Raise More Cash For Growth?

While MediciNova is showing a solid reduction in its cash burn, it's still worth considering how easily it could raise more cash, even just to fuel faster growth. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

MediciNova has a market capitalisation of US$69m and burnt through US$7.5m last year, which is 11% of the company's market value. Given that situation, it's fair to say the company wouldn't have much trouble raising more cash for growth, but shareholders would be somewhat diluted.

How Risky Is MediciNova's Cash Burn Situation?

It may already be apparent to you that we're relatively comfortable with the way MediciNova is burning through its cash. For example, we think its cash runway suggests that the company is on a good path. Its cash burn relative to its market cap wasn't quite as good, but was still rather encouraging! Looking at all the measures in this article, together, we're not worried about its rate of cash burn; the company seems well on top of its medium-term spending needs. On another note, MediciNova has 4 warning signs (and 2 which are potentially serious) we think you should know about.

Of course MediciNova may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.