Why Medpace Holdings (MEDP) Is Up 52.8% After Q2 Beat and Share Buyback and What's Next

• Medpace Holdings recently reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, posting US$603.31 million in sales and US$90.26 million net income, along with updated full-year guidance projecting revenues between US$2.42 billion and US$2.52 billion.
• The company also completed a significant share repurchase program, reducing its shares outstanding by nearly 15%, which may increase shareholder value through a higher earnings per share.
• We'll explore how Medpace's robust quarterly growth and improved 2025 guidance could influence its investment narrative and future growth expectations.

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Medpace Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Medpace Holdings, you typically need to believe in the company's ability to win new business and convert its backlog into ongoing revenue growth, while maintaining profitability in a competitive contract research environment. The strong Q2 2025 results and heightened full-year guidance provide a boost for near-term growth expectations, but do not directly address the recent slowdown in backlog growth, which remains the most important short-term catalyst and risk for the business.

The recently completed buyback, which reduced Medpace's shares outstanding by nearly 15%, is particularly relevant. This sizable reduction can meaningfully impact earnings per share and may help cushion the short-term effect if new awards and backlog growth do not recover as anticipated by management in coming quarters.

However, investors should also keep in mind that, despite positive earnings momentum, a continuation of lower backlog growth could still weigh on future results...

Read the full narrative on Medpace Holdings (it's free!)

Medpace Holdings' outlook anticipates $2.5 billion in revenue and $448.4 million in earnings by 2028. This assumes a 5.2% annual revenue growth rate and an increase in earnings of $32 million from the current $416.4 million level.

Uncover how Medpace Holdings' forecasts yield a $298.76 fair value, a 37% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community's 11 fair value estimates for Medpace range from US$288.24 to US$607.57 per share. Persistent concerns about lower new business awards and future backlog growth remain front of mind for many market participants, making it useful to compare these varied viewpoints.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Medpace Holdings - why the stock might be worth 40% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Medpace Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Medpace Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Medpace Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Medpace Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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