aTyr Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIFE) Just Reported Annual Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

A week ago, aTyr Pharma, Inc. (NASDAQ:LIFE) came out with a strong set of yearly numbers that could potentially lead to a re-rate of the stock. Results clearly exceeded expectations, with a substantial revenue beat leading to smaller losses in what looks like a definite win for investors. Revenues were US$10m and the statutory loss per share was US$1.77, smaller than the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for aTyr Pharma

After the latest results, the consensus from aTyr Pharma's three analysts is for revenues of US$9.72m in 2021, which would reflect a noticeable 7.1% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Per-share losses are expected to explode, reaching US$3.01 per share. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$9.72m and losses of US$3.01 per share in 2021.

As a result there was no major change to the consensus price target of US$15.67, implying that the business is trading roughly in line with expectations despite ongoing losses. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic aTyr Pharma analyst has a price target of US$20.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$12.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await aTyr Pharma shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 7.1% by the end of 2021. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1,947% over the last year. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 18% per year. It's pretty clear that aTyr Pharma's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.67, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for aTyr Pharma going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for aTyr Pharma (3 make us uncomfortable) you should be aware of.

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