Earnings Update: Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) Just Reported And Analysts Are Boosting Their Estimates

As you might know, Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:KYMR) last week released its latest second-quarter, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. Earnings missed the mark badly, with revenues of US$11m falling 53% short of expectations. Losses correspondingly increased, with a US$0.95 per-share statutory loss some 16% larger than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Kymera Therapeutics' 21 analysts is for revenues of US$85.1m in 2025. This would reflect a huge 90% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 13% from last year to US$3.37. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$80.0m and losses of US$3.47 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrades to both revenue and loss per share forecasts for this year.

Check out our latest analysis for Kymera Therapeutics

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$60.37, perhaps suggesting that the analysts remain concerned about ongoing losses despite the improved earnings and revenue outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Kymera Therapeutics analyst has a price target of US$70.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$53.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Kymera Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 262% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 19% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Kymera Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Kymera Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for Kymera Therapeutics (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.