Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITCI) Just Released Its Second-Quarter Earnings: Here's What Analysts Think

As you might know, Intra-Cellular Therapies, Inc. (NASDAQ:ITCI) just kicked off its latest quarterly results with some very strong numbers. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 2.2% better than analyst forecasts at US$161m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.16 per share, were 2.2% smaller than the analysts expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Intra-Cellular Therapies

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Intra-Cellular Therapies' 14 analysts is for revenues of US$668.3m in 2024. This reflects a meaningful 18% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are supposed to decline, shrinking 13% from last year to US$0.70. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$662.2m and losses of US$0.59 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Intra-Cellular Therapies even after this update; although they reconfirmed their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a considerable increase in per-share losses.

The consensus price target held steady at US$94.40, seemingly implying that the higher forecast losses are not expected to have a long term impact on the company's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Intra-Cellular Therapies analyst has a price target of US$130 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$68.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Intra-Cellular Therapies' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 40% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 67% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 9.5% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Intra-Cellular Therapies is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Intra-Cellular Therapies. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Intra-Cellular Therapies going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Intra-Cellular Therapies that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.