Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. Just Beat Earnings Expectations: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:HRMY) filed its full-year result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 6.1% to US$32.75 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$715m were in line with what the analysts predicted, Harmony Biosciences Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$2.51 per share, modestly greater than expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Harmony Biosciences Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Harmony Biosciences Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Harmony Biosciences Holdings' nine analysts is for revenues of US$842.4m in 2025. This would reflect a solid 18% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 23% to US$3.13. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$843.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.27 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at US$52.22, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Harmony Biosciences Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$75.00 and the most bearish at US$33.00 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 39% over the past five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 8.6% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Harmony Biosciences Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$52.22, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Harmony Biosciences Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.