company background image
FBRX

Forte Biosciences NasdaqCM:FBRX Stock Report

Last Price

US$1.31

Market Cap

US$26.6m

7D

10.1%

1Y

-95.1%

Updated

16 Aug, 2022

Data

Company Financials
FBRX fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation2/6
Future Growth0/6
Past Performance0/6
Financial Health6/6
Dividends0/6

FBRX Stock Overview

Forte Biosciences, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company in the United States.

Forte Biosciences Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Forte Biosciences
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUS$1.31
52 Week HighUS$31.47
52 Week LowUS$1.03
Beta1.88
1 Month Change3.15%
3 Month Change16.96%
1 Year Change-95.10%
3 Year Changen/a
5 Year Changen/a
Change since IPO-92.20%

Recent News & Updates

Aug 17
We're Hopeful That Forte Biosciences (NASDAQ:FBRX) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

We're Hopeful That Forte Biosciences (NASDAQ:FBRX) Will Use Its Cash Wisely

There's no doubt that money can be made by owning shares of unprofitable businesses. For example, biotech and mining...

Aug 16

Forte Biosciences: Lots Of Clinical Risk Ahead And A Questionable Business Plan

FB-401, the lead asset failed in clinical trials. The company has one very early-stage asset they intend to move forward in the clinic, FB-102. Investors are likely to encounter dilution, a high degree of clinical risk and there is insufficient evidence to assess whether FB-401 has any advantages over other therapeutics. Summary Creativity is not my strength so I am reusing the title from an article that I wrote a few months back about Vyne Therapeutics, another dermatology company. The shares of Vyne have fallen 60% since then. The story is at Forte is essentially the same and all too common in biotech. Vyne and Forte both experienced setbacks, institutional investors sold and long term investors have fared poorly. Most importantly, for both companies, there is a suboptimal plan to move forward that exposes investors to a high degree of clinical risk, requires hundreds of millions of capital and has a low chance of rewarding investors in a manner commensurate with this outsized risk. I will outline a few reasons I rate Forte Biosciences (FBRX) a SELL Institutional Investors Major institutional investors have sold and cut their losses. Forte Biosciences had an enviable roster of professional investors including BVF, Orbimed and Perceptive Advisors. These are seasoned investors with a staff of PhD/MDs who are highly capable of assessing the future likelihood of success. All three funds sold their entire stake in the company. This is not always the case after a clinical failure. There are many cases where institutional investors increase their stake at a low price. Three institutional investors selling their entire stake strongly suggests these professionals do not see a bright future. For an unprofitable biotech company, institutional investors are an important source of capital. Funding an unprofitable biotech in the capital markets is very challenging currently. It is not clear Forte will be able to obtain future funding and if they do, terms will likely be unfavorable. What is clear is they have very limited cash ($38.5 m currently) and they will need hundreds of million to develop the new molecule. In fact, they have a shelf registration in place. Investors should expect substantial dilution. The Plan Forward The asset the company intends to move forward after the failure of FB-401 in atopic dermatitis is FB-102. Given this asset is in the very early stages of testing, prudence dictates an assessment as to whether the risk is worth the potential reward. This molecule may enter the clinic for testing as late as 2024. The company's presentation noted development plans in graft versus host disease (GvHD), vitiligo and alopecia areata which represent combined markets of over $6 billion. Each indication will require separate clinical trials to prove safety and efficacy adding substantially to the cost of development. Each of these indications has standard of care treatments. The company notes an unmet medical need. GvHD is a disease where there is a legitimate unmet need but there are other companies much further along in testing including Seres Therapeutics (MCRB) and MaaT Pharma. The unmet need may be satisfied by these entrants and MaaT has already produced favorable safety and efficacy data. Alopecia and vitiligo have very effective treatments currently-JAK inhibitors. The company noted the safety profile of JAK inhibitors. Opzelura is a topical JAK and most Doctors consider the safety profile of the cream to be of no concern whatsoever. In alopecia, where oral JAKS are approved, the safety and efficacy data for all 3 JAK inhibitors (Pfizer, Lilly and Concert) has been favorable but there is a black box warning. From an efficacy standpoint, there is no unmet need. From a safety standpoint, the mechanism of action and side effect profile are related. The JAK inhibitors work in vitiligo and alopecia areata by suppressing the immune system. There is nothing to suggest FB-102 can achieve the suppression of the immune system required for efficacy without the same safety issues. Investors are going to spend hundreds of million dollars developing treatments in indications where there are either treatments approved or assets years ahead of Forte's molecule, FB-102. Investors are taking on a huge amount of risk to enter crowded markets with little assurance of any competitive advantage. Of course, there is also the possibility the molecule does not show efficacy or adequate safety and needs to abandoned leaving Forte with no assets. To make development of FB-102 worthwhile, it would have to offer a benefit over existing treatments. The company presentation does not include the mechanism of action of FB-102 making it impossible to ascertain whether the "proprietary molecule" that involves "antagonism of a pathway for autoimmune disease" has any advantages or is even likely to work. The company cites infrequent dosing as a potential benefit of the treatment. This is an extraordinarily poor reason to spend hundreds of millions to develop a treatment. Dosing is a very unimportant issue in diseases such as GvHD which can be fatal. Vitiligo and alopecia areata are diseases where patients have skin discolorations or baldness and patients are highly motivated to take their medicine.

Jul 07

Forte Biosciences large shareholders make demands for company's future

A pair of large shareholders of Forte Biosciences (NASDAQ:FBRX) are making demands that could impact the company's future, including the suggestion that the company liquidate. In a Wednesday SEC filing, Brad Leonard, managing member of BML Capital Management, which has a 9.1% stake in common shares, wrote that "Forte shareholders would be best served by a complete liquidation as soon as possible." Forte (FBRX) and some shareholders have been at odds over the future of Forte's only asset, FB-102, which is in the preclinical stage for several indications, including alopecia and vitiligo, a conditions that affects skin pigmentation. Leonard noted that since a May announcement on development plans, there has not been a single insider purchase. On Tuesday, Jacob Ma-Weaver, managing member of Funicular Funds, said in a SEC filing that Forte's board had yet to make an "adequate assessment of the potential immediate value creation that could be achieved through a substantial buyback program, tender offer at a premium, or special dividend." Funicular has a 7.5% stake. Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating views Forte (FBRX) as a hold with the only high grade being for valuation.

Shareholder Returns

FBRXUS BiotechsUS Market
7D10.1%1.8%4.5%
1Y-95.1%-22.2%-8.9%

Return vs Industry: FBRX underperformed the US Biotechs industry which returned -19.6% over the past year.

Return vs Market: FBRX underperformed the US Market which returned -9.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is FBRX's price volatile compared to industry and market?
FBRX volatility
FBRX Average Weekly Movement9.5%
Biotechs Industry Average Movement12.5%
Market Average Movement7.6%
10% most volatile stocks in US Market16.8%
10% least volatile stocks in US Market3.1%

Stable Share Price: FBRX is not significantly more volatile than the rest of US stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 10% a week.

Volatility Over Time: FBRX's weekly volatility has decreased from 16% to 10% over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
n/a5Paul A. Wagnerhttps://www.fortebiorx.com

Forte Biosciences, Inc. operates as a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company in the United States. It is developing FB-102 program that addresses various autoimmune diseases, such as vitiligo and alopecia areata. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Forte Biosciences Fundamentals Summary

How do Forte Biosciences's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
FBRX fundamental statistics
Market CapUS$26.65m
Earnings (TTM)-US$16.69m
Revenue (TTM)n/a

0.0x

P/S Ratio

-1.6x

P/E Ratio

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
FBRX income statement (TTM)
RevenueUS$0
Cost of RevenueUS$0
Gross ProfitUS$0
Other ExpensesUS$16.69m
Earnings-US$16.69m

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)-0.82
Gross Margin0.00%
Net Profit Margin0.00%
Debt/Equity Ratio0.0%

How did FBRX perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison
We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is FBRX undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for FBRX?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

FBRX key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenuen/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDAn/a
PEG Ration/a

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does FBRX's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

FBRX PB Ratio vs Peers
The above table shows the PB ratio for FBRX vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
BIOC Biocept
0.5x32.8%US$17.8m
AYLA Ayala Pharmaceuticals
0.8x13.2%US$19.4m
CYTH Cyclo Therapeutics
1.6x25.4%US$20.3m
ALRN Aileron Therapeutics
0.6x-10.0%US$20.0m
FBRX Forte Biosciences
0.7xn/aUS$26.6m

Price-To-Book vs Peers: FBRX is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.7x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does FBRX's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Biotechs Industry?

Price-To-Book vs Industry: FBRX is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (0.7x) compared to the US Biotechs industry average (2x)


Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is FBRX's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

FBRX PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio0.7x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate FBRX's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of FBRX when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate FBRX's fair value for valuation analysis.

Significantly Below Fair Value: Insufficient data to calculate FBRX's fair value for valuation analysis.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.


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Future Growth

How is Forte Biosciences forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 0 analysts?

Future Growth Score

0/6

Future Growth Score 0/6

  • Earnings vs Savings Rate

  • Earnings vs Market

  • High Growth Earnings

  • Revenue vs Market

  • High Growth Revenue

  • Future ROE


12.1%

Forecasted Pharmaceuticals & Biotech industry annual growth in earnings

In this section we usually present revenue and earnings growth projections based on the consensus estimates of professional analysts to help investors understand the company’s ability to generate profit. But as Forte Biosciences has not provided enough past data and has no analyst forecast, its future earnings cannot be reliably calculated by extrapolating past data or using analyst predictions.

This is quite a rare situation as 97% of companies covered by SimplyWall St do have past financial data.


Discover growth companies

  • Examine Forte Biosciences's financial health to determine how well-positioned it is against times of financial stress by looking at its level of debt over time and how much cash it has left.

Past Performance

How has Forte Biosciences performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

  • Quality Earnings

  • Growing Profit Margin

  • Earnings Trend

  • Accelerating Growth

  • Earnings vs Industry

  • High ROE


-19.0%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: FBRX is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: FBRX is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: FBRX is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 19% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare FBRX's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: FBRX is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Biotechs industry (24.5%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: FBRX has a negative Return on Equity (-43.69%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Forte Biosciences's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

  • Short Term Liabilities

  • Long Term Liabilities

  • Debt Level

  • Reducing Debt

  • Stable Cash Runway

  • Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: FBRX's short term assets ($38.8M) exceed its short term liabilities ($1.5M).

Long Term Liabilities: FBRX has no long term liabilities.


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: FBRX is debt free.

Reducing Debt: FBRX has not had any debt for past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: FBRX has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: FBRX has sufficient cash runway for 2.8 years if free cash flow continues to reduce at historical rates of 38% each year.


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Dividend

What is Forte Biosciences's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

  • Notable Dividend

  • High Dividend

  • Stable Dividend

  • Growing Dividend

  • Earnings Coverage

  • Cash Flow Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate FBRX's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate FBRX's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FBRX's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if FBRX's dividend payments have been increasing.


Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.


Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as FBRX has not reported any payouts.


Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.8yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Paul A. Wagner (52 yo)

4.58yrs

Tenure

US$5,415,446

Compensation

Dr. Paul A. Wagner, CFA, Ph D., has been the Senior Vice President of Corporate Strategy & Development and Chief Business Officer at CANbridge Life Sciences Ltd. since October 16, 2017.Dr. Wagner leads CA...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Paul A.'s total compensation ($USD5.42M) is above average for companies of similar size in the US market ($USD759.98K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Paul A.'s compensation has increased whilst the company is unprofitable.


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: FBRX's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

Experienced Board: FBRX's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 2.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have been diluted in the past year, with total shares outstanding growing by 44.5%.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Forte Biosciences, Inc.'s employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Forte Biosciences, Inc.
  • Ticker: FBRX
  • Exchange: NasdaqCM
  • Founded: NaN
  • Industry: Biotechnology
  • Sector: Pharmaceuticals & Biotech
  • Implied Market Cap: US$26.646m
  • Shares outstanding: 20.34m
  • Website: https://www.fortebiorx.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Forte Biosciences, Inc.
  • 3060 Pegasus Park Drive
  • Building 6
  • Dallas
  • Texas
  • 75247
  • United States

Listings


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2022/08/16 00:00
End of Day Share Price2022/08/16 00:00
Earnings2022/06/30
Annual Earnings2021/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.