Here's Why We're Watching Citius Pharmaceuticals' (NASDAQ:CTXR) Cash Burn Situation

Even when a business is losing money, it's possible for shareholders to make money if they buy a good business at the right price. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But while history lauds those rare successes, those that fail are often forgotten; who remembers Pets.com?

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether Citius Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:CTXR) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. For the purpose of this article, we'll define cash burn as the amount of cash the company is spending each year to fund its growth (also called its negative free cash flow). We'll start by comparing its cash burn with its cash reserves in order to calculate its cash runway.

Check out our latest analysis for Citius Pharmaceuticals

How Long Is Citius Pharmaceuticals' Cash Runway?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. As at September 2022, Citius Pharmaceuticals had cash of US$42m and no debt. Looking at the last year, the company burnt through US$28m. That means it had a cash runway of around 18 months as of September 2022. That's not too bad, but it's fair to say the end of the cash runway is in sight, unless cash burn reduces drastically. You can see how its cash balance has changed over time in the image below.

How Is Citius Pharmaceuticals' Cash Burn Changing Over Time?

Citius Pharmaceuticals didn't record any revenue over the last year, indicating that it's an early stage company still developing its business. So while we can't look to sales to understand growth, we can look at how the cash burn is changing to understand how expenditure is trending over time. The 56% reduction in its cash burn over the last twelve months may be good for protecting the balance sheet but it hardly points to imminent growth. While the past is always worth studying, it is the future that matters most of all. For that reason, it makes a lot of sense to take a look at our analyst forecasts for the company.

Can Citius Pharmaceuticals Raise More Cash Easily?

There's no doubt Citius Pharmaceuticals' rapidly reducing cash burn brings comfort, but even if it's only hypothetical, it's always worth asking how easily it could raise more money to fund further growth. Generally speaking, a listed business can raise new cash through issuing shares or taking on debt. One of the main advantages held by publicly listed companies is that they can sell shares to investors to raise cash and fund growth. By looking at a company's cash burn relative to its market capitalisation, we gain insight on how much shareholders would be diluted if the company needed to raise enough cash to cover another year's cash burn.

Citius Pharmaceuticals has a market capitalisation of US$122m and burnt through US$28m last year, which is 23% of the company's market value. That's not insignificant, and if the company had to sell enough shares to fund another year's growth at the current share price, you'd likely witness fairly costly dilution.

How Risky Is Citius Pharmaceuticals' Cash Burn Situation?

On this analysis of Citius Pharmaceuticals' cash burn, we think its cash burn reduction was reassuring, while its cash burn relative to its market cap has us a bit worried. While we're the kind of investors who are always a bit concerned about the risks involved with cash burning companies, the metrics we have discussed in this article leave us relatively comfortable about Citius Pharmaceuticals' situation. Taking an in-depth view of risks, we've identified 1 warning sign for Citius Pharmaceuticals that you should be aware of before investing.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.