Time To Worry? Analysts Are Downgrading Their BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) Outlook

One thing we could say about the analysts on BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) - they aren't optimistic, having just made a major negative revision to their near-term (statutory) forecasts for the organization. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the latest downgrade, the 16 analysts covering BioNTech provided consensus estimates of €4.7b revenue in 2023, which would reflect a concerning 49% decline on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are supposed to dive 73% to €4.94 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €5.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of €5.64 in 2023. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about BioNTech's prospects, administering a measurable cut to revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Check out our latest analysis for BioNTech

Analysts made no major changes to their price target of €133, suggesting the downgrades are not expected to have a long-term impact on BioNTech's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic BioNTech analyst has a price target of €183 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €93.78. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 74% by the end of 2023. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 52% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 15% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BioNTech is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that BioNTech's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. The lack of change in the price target is puzzling in light of the downgrade but, with a serious decline expected this year, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of BioNTech.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for BioNTech going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.