BioNTech SE Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) just released its latest yearly report and things are not looking great. BioNTech missed earnings this time around, with €3.8b revenue coming in 8.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €3.83 also fell short of expectations by 14%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for BioNTech

Taking into account the latest results, the 17 analysts covering BioNTech provided consensus estimates of €2.91b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a disturbing 24% decline over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -€1.63 per share in 2024. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €3.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.20 in 2024. There looks to have been a significant drop in sentiment regarding BioNTech's prospects after these latest results, with a minor downgrade to revenues and the analysts now forecasting a loss instead of a profit.

The consensus price target fell 6.0% to US$118, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic BioNTech analyst has a price target of US$187 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$89.56. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 24% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 45% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 17% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - BioNTech is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for BioNTech dropped from profits to a loss next year. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BioNTech. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for BioNTech going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with BioNTech (at least 1 which can't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.