Biogen (BIIB) Is Down 5.2% After HSBC Downgrade Amid Mixed Drug Pipeline Signals – Has The Bull Case Changed?

• In recent days, Stoke Therapeutics and Biogen reported encouraging long-term Phase 1/2a and extension data for zorevunersen in Dravet syndrome, while Eisai and Biogen shared new clinical and real-world insights on LEQEMBI and its subcutaneous formulation for early Alzheimer’s disease, alongside additional regulatory milestones and broader market access moves.
• Yet, HSBC’s downgrade of Biogen on concerns over declining CD20 collaboration royalties and growth risks highlights how questions about future earnings power are increasingly competing with positive pipeline updates in shaping investor sentiment.
• Against this backdrop, we’ll examine how HSBC’s concerns about weakening royalty streams and growth risk interact with Biogen’s expanding neurology pipeline to reshape its investment narrative.

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Biogen Investment Narrative Recap

To own Biogen today, you need to believe that new neurology launches like LEQEMBI and emerging assets such as zorevunersen can offset pressure on legacy MS and CD20 royalty streams. The latest clinical and market access updates strengthen the near term LEQEMBI story, while HSBC’s downgrade underlines that the most important near term catalyst is still LEQEMBI’s commercial execution and payer uptake, and the biggest risk is that falling royalties and MS erosion outpace growth from newer products.

Among the recent announcements, Eisai and Biogen’s new LEQEMBI data and progress on the subcutaneous formulation look most relevant, because they speak directly to whether LEQEMBI can grow into the role analysts expect for it at a time when HSBC is questioning Biogen’s future earnings power and the durability of its existing royalty base.

Yet while LEQEMBI and the pipeline are moving forward, investors should also be aware that weakening CD20 collaboration royalties could...

Read the full narrative on Biogen (it's free!)

Biogen's narrative projects $9.4 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Biogen's forecasts yield a $178.76 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Seven members of the Simply Wall St Community value Biogen between US$100 and US$366, reflecting very different expectations for its long term potential. Against that variety of views, reliance on a handful of new launches to replace declining MS and CD20 revenues becomes a key issue for how the company performs over time.

Explore 7 other fair value estimates on Biogen - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Biogen Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Biogen research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Biogen research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Biogen's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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