Assertio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASRT) Just Released Its First-Quarter Results And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

Assertio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASRT) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$26m missing analyst predictions by 3.7%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$0.14 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 1 warning sign about Assertio Holdings. View them for free.

After the latest results, the consensus from Assertio Holdings' four analysts is for revenues of US$112.7m in 2025, which would reflect a measurable 5.3% decline in revenue compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to narrow 6.1% to US$0.30 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$115.2m and US$0.18 per share in losses. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Assertio Holdings after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

View our latest analysis for Assertio Holdings

The average price target was broadly unchanged at US$2.80, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Assertio Holdings at US$3.50 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$1.50. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. Over the past five years, revenues have declined around 0.3% annually. Worse, forecasts are essentially predicting the decline to accelerate, with the estimate for an annualised 7.0% decline in revenue until the end of 2025. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 8.3% annually. So while a broad number of companies are forecast to grow, unfortunately Assertio Holdings is expected to see its revenue affected worse than other companies in the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Assertio Holdings. On the negative side, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$2.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Assertio Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Assertio Holdings , and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.