Investors in Assembly Biosciences (NASDAQ:ASMB) from five years ago are still down 89%, even after 14% gain this past week

Assembly Biosciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:ASMB) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 14% in the last week. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 89% in that time. So we don't gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The real question is whether the business can leave its past behind and improve itself over the years ahead. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

The recent uptick of 14% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Assembly Biosciences

Given that Assembly Biosciences didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.

Over half a decade Assembly Biosciences reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 35% for each year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 14% per year in that period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Of course, the poor performance could mean the market has been too severe selling down. That can happen.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Assembly Biosciences will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Assembly Biosciences shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 40% over the last year. Notably the five-year annualised TSR loss of 14% per year compares very unfavourably with the recent share price performance. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Assembly Biosciences (at least 1 which is a bit unpleasant) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.