Stock Analysis

Even after rising 5.6% this past week, Agios Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:AGIO) shareholders are still down 71% over the past five years

NasdaqGS:AGIO
Source: Shutterstock

We're definitely into long term investing, but some companies are simply bad investments over any time frame. We don't wish catastrophic capital loss on anyone. Anyone who held Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:AGIO) for five years would be nursing their metaphorical wounds since the share price dropped 71% in that time. We also note that the stock has performed poorly over the last year, with the share price down 23%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 18% in the last three months.

On a more encouraging note the company has added US$62m to its market cap in just the last 7 days, so let's see if we can determine what's driven the five-year loss for shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Agios Pharmaceuticals

Given that Agios Pharmaceuticals didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally expect to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

In the last five years Agios Pharmaceuticals saw its revenue shrink by 52% per year. That puts it in an unattractive cohort, to put it mildly. So it's not that strange that the share price dropped 11% per year in that period. We don't think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor - but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.

You can see below how earnings and revenue have changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGS:AGIO Earnings and Revenue Growth November 2nd 2023

Balance sheet strength is crucial. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on how its financial position has changed over time.

A Different Perspective

Agios Pharmaceuticals shareholders are down 23% for the year, but the market itself is up 13%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 11% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Agios Pharmaceuticals you should know about.

Of course Agios Pharmaceuticals may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

If you're looking to trade Agios Pharmaceuticals, open an account with the lowest-cost platform trusted by professionals, Interactive Brokers.

With clients in over 200 countries and territories, and access to 160 markets, IBKR lets you trade stocks, options, futures, forex, bonds and funds from a single integrated account.

Enjoy no hidden fees, no account minimums, and FX conversion rates as low as 0.03%, far better than what most brokers offer.

Sponsored Content

New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One Place

We've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.

• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency
• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile
• Track the Fair Value of your stocks

Try a Demo Portfolio for Free

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.