Stock Analysis

Tencent Music Entertainment Group's (NYSE:TME) investors will be pleased with their fantastic 355% return over the last three years

NYSE:TME
Source: Shutterstock

Generally speaking, investors are inspired to be stock pickers by the potential to find the big winners. You won't get it right every time, but when you do, the returns can be truly splendid. For example, the Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME) share price is up a whopping 346% in the last three years, a handsome return for long term holders. It's also good to see the share price up 55% over the last quarter.

So let's assess the underlying fundamentals over the last 3 years and see if they've moved in lock-step with shareholder returns.

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Tencent Music Entertainment Group achieved compound earnings per share growth of 54% per year. We don't think it is entirely coincidental that the EPS growth is reasonably close to the 65% average annual increase in the share price. This suggests that sentiment and expectations have not changed drastically. Au contraire, the share price change has arguably mimicked the EPS growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
NYSE:TME Earnings Per Share Growth July 14th 2025

It is of course excellent to see how Tencent Music Entertainment Group has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. This free interactive report on Tencent Music Entertainment Group's balance sheet strength is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

Advertisement

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Tencent Music Entertainment Group's TSR for the last 3 years was 355%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that Tencent Music Entertainment Group shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 35% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 5% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Tencent Music Entertainment Group is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

But note: Tencent Music Entertainment Group may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Tencent Music Entertainment Group might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

Access Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NYSE:TME

Tencent Music Entertainment Group

Operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People’s Republic of China.

Excellent balance sheet with proven track record.

Advertisement