A Look At The Fair Value Of HUYA Inc. (NYSE:HUYA)

Key Insights

• HUYA's estimated fair value is US$3.40 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Current share price of US$3.27 suggests HUYA is potentially trading close to its fair value
• The CN¥3.98 analyst price target for HUYA is 17% more than our estimate of fair value

How far off is HUYA Inc. (NYSE:HUYA) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will use the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model on this occasion. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for HUYA

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥216.5m	CN¥317.7m	CN¥352.4m	CN¥378.2m	CN¥400.1m	CN¥419.1m	CN¥435.7m	CN¥450.7m	CN¥464.6m	CN¥477.7m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x6	Analyst x6	Analyst x2	Est @ 7.34%	Est @ 5.80%	Est @ 4.73%	Est @ 3.98%	Est @ 3.45%	Est @ 3.08%	Est @ 2.82%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 8.6%	CN¥199	CN¥269	CN¥275	CN¥272	CN¥265	CN¥256	CN¥245	CN¥233	CN¥221	CN¥210

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥2.4b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.6%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥478m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.6%– 2.2%) = CN¥7.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥7.7b÷ ( 1 + 8.6%)¹⁰= CN¥3.4b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is CN¥5.8b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$3.3, the company appears about fair value at a 3.7% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at HUYA as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.6%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.049. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for HUYA

Next Steps:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For HUYA, there are three pertinent factors you should consider:

1. Financial Health: Does HUYA have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does HUYA's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.