David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. As with many other companies The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt A Problem?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
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What Is Walt Disney's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Walt Disney had debt of US$47.2b at the end of July 2023, a reduction from US$51.6b over a year. However, it does have US$11.5b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$35.7b.
How Strong Is Walt Disney's Balance Sheet?
According to the last reported balance sheet, Walt Disney had liabilities of US$28.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of US$64.6b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of US$11.5b as well as receivables valued at US$13.1b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$68.3b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Walt Disney has a very large market capitalization of US$146.6b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But it's clear that we should definitely closely examine whether it can manage its debt without dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Walt Disney has a debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.7 and its EBIT covered its interest expense 4.9 times. This suggests that while the debt levels are significant, we'd stop short of calling them problematic. If Walt Disney can keep growing EBIT at last year's rate of 14% over the last year, then it will find its debt load easier to manage. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Walt Disney's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, Walt Disney's free cash flow amounted to 32% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Our View
Walt Disney's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow and net debt to EBITDA definitely weigh on it, in our esteem. But it seems to be able to grow its EBIT without much trouble. We think that Walt Disney's debt does make it a bit risky, after considering the aforementioned data points together. That's not necessarily a bad thing, since leverage can boost returns on equity, but it is something to be aware of. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Walt Disney that you should be aware of.
When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NYSE:DIS
Proven track record with adequate balance sheet.
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