Thryv Holdings, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 46%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Shareholders might have noticed that Thryv Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:THRY) filed its first-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.9% to US$21.50 in the past week. Revenue of US$234m surpassed estimates by 3.1%, although statutory earnings per share missed badly, coming in 46% below expectations at US$0.22 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Thryv Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the five analysts covering Thryv Holdings, is for revenues of US$818.5m in 2024. This implies an uncomfortable 9.6% reduction in Thryv Holdings' revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Thryv Holdings forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.33 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$825.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.75 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

The average price target fell 11% to US$29.00, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Thryv Holdings at US$36.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$25.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Thryv Holdings shareholders.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. One more thing stood out to us about these estimates, and it's the idea that Thryv Holdings' decline is expected to accelerate, with revenues forecast to fall at an annualised rate of 13% to the end of 2024. This tops off a historical decline of 9.8% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for companies in the broader industry, which suggest that revenues (in aggregate) are expected to grow 3.2% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while it does have declining revenues, the analysts also expect Thryv Holdings to suffer worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Thryv Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Thryv Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Thryv Holdings going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 1 warning sign for Thryv Holdings that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.