Match Group, Inc. Just Recorded A 18% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

There's been a notable change in appetite for Match Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:MTCH) shares in the week since its first-quarter report, with the stock down 11% to US$27.18. Revenues were US$831m, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of US$0.44 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 18%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

We've discovered 3 warning signs about Match Group. View them for free.

Following last week's earnings report, Match Group's 22 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$3.44b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to reduce 4.2% to US$2.13 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.06 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

Check out our latest analysis for Match Group

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$34.77, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Match Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$46.00 and the most bearish at US$28.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.3% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 9.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 10% per year. It's pretty clear that Match Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Match Group following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Match Group's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$34.77, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Match Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Match Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Match Group you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.