iQIYI, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:IQ) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 70% Above Its Share Price

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, iQIYI fair value estimate is US$7.89
• Current share price of US$4.64 suggests iQIYI is potentially 41% undervalued
• Our fair value estimate is 7.8% higher than iQIYI's analyst price target of CN¥7.32

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of iQIYI, Inc. (NASDAQ:IQ) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for iQIYI

What's The Estimated Valuation?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

A DCF is all about the idea that a dollar in the future is less valuable than a dollar today, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (CN¥, Millions)	CN¥8.00b	CN¥8.66b	CN¥4.36b	CN¥5.39b	CN¥4.73b	CN¥4.35b	CN¥4.14b	CN¥4.02b	CN¥3.97b	CN¥3.96b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -12.25%	Est @ -7.93%	Est @ -4.90%	Est @ -2.79%	Est @ -1.31%	Est @ -0.27%
Present Value (CN¥, Millions) Discounted @ 9.8%	CN¥7.3k	CN¥7.2k	CN¥3.3k	CN¥3.7k	CN¥3.0k	CN¥2.5k	CN¥2.2k	CN¥1.9k	CN¥1.7k	CN¥1.6k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = CN¥34b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 9.8%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = CN¥4.0b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (9.8%– 2.2%) = CN¥53b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= CN¥53b÷ ( 1 + 9.8%)¹⁰= CN¥21b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is CN¥55b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of US$4.6, the company appears quite good value at a 41% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at iQIYI as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 9.8%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.254. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for iQIYI

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For iQIYI, we've put together three additional elements you should explore:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for iQIYI we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does IQ's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.