Criteo (CRTO): Revisiting Valuation After a Steep Year‑to‑Date Share Price Slide

Criteo (CRTO) has quietly slid about 47% this year, even as its underlying ad tech business remains cash generative. That disconnect is prompting some investors to revisit the stock’s risk reward tradeoff.

See our latest analysis for Criteo.

Despite a steep year to date share price return of negative 46.9 percent, recent trading has steadied, with modest positive 1 day and 7 day share price returns hinting that heavy selling pressure may be easing while long term total shareholder returns remain mixed.

If Criteo’s reset has you reassessing opportunities in digital advertising and data driven platforms, this could be a good moment to scout high growth tech and AI stocks for other potential growth stories.

With revenue slipping, earnings growth stalling, and the share price trading at a steep discount to analyst targets, is Criteo a misunderstood cash generator at bargain levels or is the market rightly discounting its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 41.9% Undervalued

With Criteo last closing at $20.88 versus a narrative fair value near $35.92, the gap implies investors may be underpricing its cash generation and margin potential.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $38.167 for Criteo based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $51.0 and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $25.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of shrinking revenues can still justify a higher valuation? This narrative leans on expanding margins and a punchy future earnings multiple.

Result: Fair Value of $35.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower client onboarding and softer near term demand could undercut retail media momentum, which may limit revenue growth and delay the rerating implied by this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Criteo narrative.

Build Your Own Criteo Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view. Start in under three minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Criteo research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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