Criteo Future Growth
Future criteria checks 0/6
Criteo's revenue and earnings are forecast to decline at 11.9% and 2.8% per annum respectively. EPS is expected to decline by 1.4% per annum. Return on equity is forecast to be 14.4% in 3 years.
Key information
-2.8%
Earnings growth rate
-1.41%
EPS growth rate
| Media earnings growth | 33.0% |
| Revenue growth rate | -11.9% |
| Future return on equity | 14.41% |
| Analyst coverage | Good |
| Last updated | 20 Apr 2026 |
Recent future growth updates
Recent updates
CRTO: Future Share Repurchases And AI Commerce Data Partnerships May Support Repricing
Criteo's analyst price target has been reduced by $1.00 as analysts update their views in light of recent Street research that includes several lowered targets from major firms. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research shows a cluster of lower price targets for Criteo, including changes from firms such as JPMorgan and several other brokerages.
CRTO: GenAI Commerce Partnerships And Buybacks Will Support Multiple Re Rating
Analysts have trimmed their average Criteo price targets by a mid single digit dollar amount, with cuts ranging from $1 to $12, as they factor in sector wide concerns around smaller ad platforms and compare the company with peers tied more directly to GenAI and GPU related themes. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research points to a more cautious stance on Criteo, with several price target trims clustered around concerns about smaller ad platforms and investor focus on GenAI and GPU related themes.
Criteo is a profitable, cash-generative commerce data platform trading at or below its liquidation value, with Retail Media re-acceleration
Investment Thesis The stock trades near or below the bear-case DCF intrinsic value (~$33), meaning you are paying for a business in secular decline and getting the Retail Media growth optionality largely for free Retail Media’s underlying CexT grew 16% in 2025 ex-scope changes; as the $75M headwind anniversaries in late 2026, reported growth should re-accelerate and likely re-rate the multiple Management has retired ~$871M in shares since 2018 and continues buying at ~$28/share, compounding per-share value even if aggregate FCF is flat The Luxembourg redomiciliation removes the primary structural barrier to acquisition; at $35–42/share a takeout is both fair to shareholders and strategically rational for a PE buyer or holding company The commerce data asset — 5B SKUs, $1T+ in observed transactions, 90% client retention — is 20 years in the making and cannot be replicated quickly by any credible acquirer or competitor Risk Considerations A single large retailer reducing scope cost $75M in annual revenue; the top-10 clients represent ~20% of revenue, making the thesis vulnerable to one or two more relationship deteriorations Performance Media (~$915M of CexT) faces structural headwinds from walled garden dominance and potential client in-housing; if it declines faster than Retail Media grows, total CexT could shrink rather than stabilize 2026 capex steps up to ~$175M (from $101M in 2025) for data center renewal, compressing near-term FCF to ~$130–150M and limiting the buyback pace precisely when the stock may be cheapest Criteo’s independence is its value proposition to retailers — any acquisition by a strategic player that competes with retailers (Amazon, Walmart, Google) would trigger customer attrition and destroy the core asset it was purchased for Agentic commerce (MCP, conversational shopping) is the growth narrative but is pre-revenue and depends on AI assistant providers adopting Criteo’s APIs rather than building their own commerce data layersCRTO: GenAI Commerce And Buybacks Will Offset Lower Multiple Concerns
Criteo's updated analyst price target has moved lower from $35.75 to about $29.95 as analysts factor in softer profit margin assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and a reduced future P/E multiple following a series of Street target cuts across major firms. Analyst Commentary Street research on Criteo has clustered around lower price targets, with several firms trimming their numbers by single digit dollar amounts and a few cutting targets by double digits.
CRTO: Future Returns Will Hinge On AI Commerce And Margin Execution
Our updated analyst price target for Criteo moves to $18 from $25, reflecting a series of recent target cuts across the Street as analysts factor in softer profit margin assumptions, a slightly higher discount rate, and lower future P/E expectations, even as they model less steep revenue contraction than before. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Criteo has leaned cautious, with a series of price target reductions across multiple firms.CRTO: Future Share Repurchases And Commerce Data May Support Repricing
Analysts have reduced their price target on Criteo from $51.00 to $43.00. The change reflects updated views that factor in slightly softer revenue and margin assumptions, a modestly higher discount rate, and a series of Street target cuts across multiple firms.CRTO: GenAI Commerce Efforts And Buybacks Will Support Upside Through 2026
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Criteo to about US$34 from US$36, reflecting a cautious view on smaller ad platforms as investors focus more on companies tied to GenAI or GPU enabled returns on capital. Analyst Commentary Recent research points to a more cautious stance on Criteo, with the price target adjusted to US$34.CRTO: Retail Media Progress And Buybacks Will Support Upside Beyond 2026
Our updated fair value estimate for Criteo nudges down slightly from US$35.92 to US$35.75 per share. This reflects a blend of cautious analyst price target revisions around retail media growth, slower client ramp ups into Q4, and differing views on how smaller ad platforms will be valued relative to larger GenAI and GPU focused peers.CRTO: Retail Media Execution And Buybacks Will Support Upside Through 2026
Narrative Update on Criteo Analysts recently nudged their price targets on Criteo higher, with one moving to US$29 from US$27 and another to US$42 from US$41. They cited solid Q3 results, strength in retail media, and performance ahead of expectations for net revenue and EBITDA, despite softer Q4 guidance tied to slower client ramp timing.Criteo: Amazon Risks Are Real, But Cheap Multiples Warrant A Buy
Dec 17CRTO: Retail Media Momentum Will Drive Share Upside Through 2026
Analysts modestly raised their price targets on Criteo, with recent moves to about $29 and $42 per share, citing solid Q3 results, continued retail media growth, and supportive read throughs from broader ad tech M&A, despite near term softness in Q4 guidance. Analyst Commentary Street research following the Q3 print reflects a generally constructive stance on Criteo, with moderate target price increases and a focus on the durability of its retail media growth, tempered by near term execution risks.CRTO: Ongoing Retail Media Momentum Will Drive Share Upside Into 2026
Analysts have raised their price targets on Criteo shares, with some increasing estimates by $1 to $2. They cite solid third quarter results and ongoing momentum in retail media, although the outlook for the fourth quarter is lighter.CRTO: Retail Media Expansion Will Drive Upside Despite Near-Term Headwinds
Analysts have modestly raised their price targets for Criteo, with increases ranging from $2 to $1 per share. They cite the company's solid third-quarter performance and continued progress in retail media, despite a lighter Q4 outlook.CRTO: Share Repurchases And Retail Media Partnerships Will Drive Outperformance Ahead
Analysts have adjusted their average price target for Criteo downward from $38.17 to $35.92. This change is attributed to solid recent results; however, it is offset by lighter guidance and slower-than-expected client growth, which is impacting near-term retail media performance.Earnings Working Against Criteo S.A.'s (NASDAQ:CRTO) Share Price Following 27% Dive
May 28
Does Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) Deserve A Spot On Your Watchlist?
May 04Is Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) A Risky Investment?
Apr 15Criteo: Steady Growth With Retail Media Potential
Mar 13Criteo S.A.'s (NASDAQ:CRTO) Subdued P/E Might Signal An Opportunity
Mar 05We Like The Quality Of Criteo's (NASDAQ:CRTO) Earnings
Feb 15Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) Has A Rock Solid Balance Sheet
Jan 10Criteo S.A.: Still Worth Investing In
Dec 18Is Now An Opportune Moment To Examine Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO)?
Nov 15Getting In Cheap On Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO) Is Unlikely
Oct 28These 4 Measures Indicate That Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) Is Using Debt Safely
Oct 10
Decisive Partnerships And AI Propel Growth Amid Challenges
Enhanced advertising capabilities due to Google's revised cookie policy and partnerships with companies like Microsoft could improve Criteo's revenue and market position.Criteo: Riding Retail Media Advertising Tailwinds
Aug 21Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO)?
Aug 11Subdued Growth No Barrier To Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO) With Shares Advancing 26%
Jul 24We Discuss Why Criteo S.A.'s (NASDAQ:CRTO) CEO Compensation May Be Closely Reviewed
Jun 19Criteo: Good Momentum, But Still Undervalued
May 17We Think Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) Can Manage Its Debt With Ease
May 08Is There Now An Opportunity In Criteo S.A. (NASDAQ:CRTO)?
Apr 17Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | Free Cash Flow | Cash from Op | Avg. No. Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/31/2028 | 1,313 | 134 | 308 | N/A | 4 |
| 12/31/2027 | 1,250 | 136 | 204 | 347 | 10 |
| 12/31/2026 | 1,185 | 128 | 139 | 339 | 10 |
| 12/31/2025 | 1,945 | 145 | 208 | 311 | N/A |
| 9/30/2025 | 1,957 | 168 | 221 | 320 | N/A |
| 6/30/2025 | 1,946 | 137 | 193 | 288 | N/A |
| 3/31/2025 | 1,935 | 142 | 225 | 306 | N/A |
| 12/31/2024 | 1,933 | 112 | 180 | 258 | N/A |
| 9/30/2024 | 1,947 | 101 | 158 | 250 | N/A |
| 6/30/2024 | 1,957 | 102 | 122 | 212 | N/A |
| 3/31/2024 | 1,954 | 72 | 104 | 196 | N/A |
| 12/31/2023 | 1,949 | 53 | 108 | 224 | N/A |
| 9/30/2023 | 1,948 | 8 | 75 | 188 | N/A |
| 6/30/2023 | 1,925 | 7 | 97 | 210 | N/A |
| 3/31/2023 | 1,951 | -23 | 112 | 223 | N/A |
| 12/31/2022 | 2,017 | 9 | 192 | 256 | N/A |
| 9/30/2022 | 2,106 | 67 | 137 | 197 | N/A |
| 6/30/2022 | 2,168 | 84 | 146 | 206 | N/A |
| 3/31/2022 | 2,224 | 133 | 165 | 218 | N/A |
| 12/31/2021 | 2,254 | 134 | 166 | 221 | N/A |
| 9/30/2021 | 2,262 | 106 | 144 | 199 | N/A |
| 6/30/2021 | 2,224 | 88 | 145 | 199 | N/A |
| 3/31/2021 | 2,110 | 79 | 138 | 206 | N/A |
| 12/31/2020 | 2,073 | 72 | 118 | 185 | N/A |
| 9/30/2020 | 2,064 | 68 | 130 | 201 | N/A |
| 6/30/2020 | 2,116 | 82 | 111 | 193 | N/A |
| 3/31/2020 | 2,207 | 87 | 132 | 212 | N/A |
| 12/31/2019 | 2,262 | 91 | 140 | 223 | N/A |
| 9/30/2019 | 2,279 | 87 | N/A | 249 | N/A |
| 6/30/2019 | 2,285 | 85 | N/A | 256 | N/A |
| 3/31/2019 | 2,294 | 88 | N/A | 243 | N/A |
| 12/31/2018 | 2,300 | 89 | N/A | 261 | N/A |
| 9/30/2018 | 2,304 | 104 | N/A | 254 | N/A |
| 6/30/2018 | 2,339 | 106 | N/A | 266 | N/A |
| 3/31/2018 | 2,344 | 99 | N/A | 286 | N/A |
| 12/31/2017 | 2,297 | 91 | N/A | 245 | N/A |
| 9/30/2017 | 2,189 | 78 | N/A | 238 | N/A |
| 6/30/2017 | 2,049 | 71 | N/A | 220 | N/A |
| 3/31/2017 | 1,915 | 78 | N/A | 179 | N/A |
| 12/31/2016 | 1,799 | 82 | N/A | 153 | N/A |
| 9/30/2016 | 1,629 | 81 | N/A | 149 | N/A |
| 6/30/2016 | 1,538 | 72 | N/A | 122 | N/A |
| 3/31/2016 | 1,430 | 64 | N/A | 115 | N/A |
| 12/31/2015 | 1,323 | 60 | N/A | 137 | N/A |
| 9/30/2015 | 1,343 | 48 | N/A | 133 | N/A |
| 6/30/2015 | 1,228 | 56 | N/A | 144 | N/A |
Analyst Future Growth Forecasts
Earnings vs Savings Rate: CRTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.8% per year).
Earnings vs Market: CRTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-2.8% per year).
High Growth Earnings: CRTO's earnings are forecast to decline over the next 3 years.
Revenue vs Market: CRTO's revenue is expected to decline over the next 3 years (-11.9% per year).
High Growth Revenue: CRTO's revenue is forecast to decline over the next 3 years (-11.9% per year).
Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts
Future Return on Equity
Future ROE: CRTO's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (14.4%).
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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/01 03:55 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/01 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
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Analyst Sources
Criteo S.A. is covered by 30 analysts. 10 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Rocco Strauss | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Richard Kramer | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Mark Zgutowicz | Benchmark Company |