Did Bilibili’s (BILI) Earnings Surge and Share Buyback Just Shift Its Investment Narrative?

• Bilibili recently reported strong second quarter and half-year results for 2025, highlighting significant improvements in both revenue and profitability, and completed a share repurchase program underlined by the buyback of over 6.4 million shares worth US$116.4 million.
• The company also issued new Class Z ordinary shares as part of its incentive plans, aiming to align leadership interests with those of stakeholders while supporting operational progress.
• We'll examine how Bilibili's improved net income and share incentive plan update could reshape its investment narrative and outlook.

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Bilibili Investment Narrative Recap

At its core, owning Bilibili stock means believing in the platform’s ability to grow its Gen Z user base and turn strong engagement into sustainable revenue and profit. The latest earnings, which reveal a sharp turnaround to profitability and robust sales growth, provide encouraging momentum for the main short-term catalyst: accelerating digital adoption and monetization. However, these updates do not materially alter the most significant near-term risk, dependence on hit games and China’s regulatory environment remain key uncertainties.

The completion of Bilibili’s US$116.4 million share buyback is particularly relevant, as it signals management’s confidence in the company’s long-term value and may help offset short-term share price volatility during periods of business transition. While this action aligns capital returns with improved results, it does not fundamentally address the concentration risk in Bilibili's games segment, especially given limited upcoming releases subject to regulatory approval. Yet, as the company continues to invest in content and creator support...

Read the full narrative on Bilibili (it's free!)

Bilibili's narrative projects CN¥38.4 billion in revenue and CN¥3.4 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 9.3% yearly revenue growth and an increase in earnings of approximately CN¥3.18 billion from the current CN¥220.3 million.

Uncover how Bilibili's forecasts yield a $27.54 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates span from US$11 to US$32.10, underscoring wide-ranging price targets. While opinions differ, Bilibili’s recent move to profitability stands out as a catalyst that could influence future outlooks, invite yourself to compare these views and form your own assessment.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Bilibili - why the stock might be worth as much as 38% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Bilibili Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Bilibili research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Bilibili research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Bilibili's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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