MP Materials Corp.

NYSE:MP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.6b

MP Materials Valuation

Is MP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MP ($15.84) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($0.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MP?

Key metric: As MP is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MP. This is calculated by dividing MP's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MP's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio14x
SalesUS$184.07m
Market CapUS$2.59b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.6x
MTRN Materion
1.2x6.4%US$2.1b
NEXA Nexa Resources
0.4x0.3%US$1.0b
GSM Ferroglobe
0.4x5.3%US$727.1m
CMP Compass Minerals International
0.4x3.0%US$441.9m
MP MP Materials
14x36.4%US$2.6b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the peer average (0.6x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MP's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

26 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TX Ternium
0.3x2.7%US$5.69b
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs
0.2x4.8%US$4.63b
ARNC Arconic
0.4x5.8%US$3.01b
CSTM Constellium
0.2x9.3%US$1.51b
MP 14.0xIndustry Avg. 1.2xNo. of Companies26PS01.63.24.86.48+
26 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.2x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio14x
Fair PS Ratio2.8x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (2.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$15.84
US$23.09
+45.8%
14.4%US$30.00US$18.00n/a12
Dec ’25US$21.07
US$22.18
+5.2%
16.5%US$30.00US$16.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$18.23
US$20.80
+14.1%
20.7%US$30.00US$12.50n/a12
Oct ’25US$17.54
US$22.29
+27.1%
37.2%US$45.00US$12.50n/a12
Sep ’25US$12.90
US$21.46
+66.3%
39.6%US$45.00US$12.50n/a12
Aug ’25US$12.68
US$22.46
+77.1%
37.0%US$45.00US$13.50n/a12
Jul ’25US$12.80
US$23.91
+86.8%
34.9%US$45.00US$13.50n/a11
Jun ’25US$16.22
US$24.18
+49.1%
33.6%US$45.00US$14.50n/a11
May ’25US$15.91
US$24.23
+52.3%
33.4%US$45.00US$15.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$15.08
US$24.77
+64.3%
30.6%US$45.00US$15.50n/a11
Mar ’25US$15.47
US$27.00
+74.5%
28.1%US$45.00US$17.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$16.16
US$28.82
+78.3%
28.5%US$45.00US$14.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$19.85
US$30.00
+51.1%
23.8%US$45.00US$18.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$16.90
US$30.67
+81.5%
23.2%US$45.00US$18.00US$21.0712
Nov ’24US$15.77
US$32.83
+108.2%
26.6%US$56.00US$24.00US$18.2312
Oct ’24US$19.10
US$33.83
+77.1%
23.6%US$56.00US$24.00US$17.5412
Sep ’24US$21.51
US$33.83
+57.3%
23.6%US$56.00US$24.00US$12.9012
Aug ’24US$23.08
US$34.91
+51.3%
23.2%US$56.00US$24.00US$12.6811
Jul ’24US$22.88
US$35.36
+54.6%
22.8%US$56.00US$26.00US$12.8011
Jun ’24US$20.93
US$35.45
+69.4%
22.7%US$56.00US$26.00US$16.2211
May ’24US$21.56
US$39.18
+81.7%
19.6%US$56.00US$28.00US$15.9111
Apr ’24US$28.19
US$43.45
+54.1%
14.4%US$56.00US$34.00US$15.0811
Mar ’24US$35.82
US$44.41
+24.0%
12.8%US$56.00US$34.00US$15.4711
Feb ’24US$33.78
US$44.14
+30.7%
12.9%US$56.00US$36.00US$16.1611
Jan ’24US$24.28
US$44.32
+82.5%
13.0%US$56.00US$36.00US$19.8511
Dec ’23US$32.93
US$44.79
+36.0%
12.8%US$56.00US$36.00US$16.9012

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 03:00
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

MP Materials Corp. is covered by 18 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Benjamin KalloBaird
Subhasish ChandraBenchmark Company
Gregory JonesBMO Capital Markets Equity Research