MP Materials Corp.

NYSE:MP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$9.9b

MP Materials Valuation

Is MP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Ultimate guide to DCF valuation for stock investing

Learn how to determine fair value like the best investors in the world.

Below Future Cash Flow Value: MP ($54.3) is trading below our estimate of future cash flow value ($126.77)

Significantly Below Future Cash Flow Value: MP is trading below future cash flow value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MP?

Key metric: As MP is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MP. This is calculated by dividing MP's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MP's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio23.2x
SalesUS$416.25m
Market CapUS$9.86b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average3.9x
MTRN Materion
2.5x10.61%US$5.3b
BVN Compañía de Minas BuenaventuraA
4.1x1.84%US$8.7b
NEXA Nexa Resources
0.5x-1.94%US$1.9b
SGML Sigma Lithium
8.4x35.17%US$1.2b
MP MP Materials
23.2x29.90%US$9.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (23.2x) compared to the peer average (3.9x).

Historical Price to Sales Ratio

Historical Price to Sales Ratio compares a stock's price to its sales over time. Higher ratios indicate that investors are willing to pay more for the stock.

Fetching historical data

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MP's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

38 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AA Alcoa
1x0.83%US$13.65b
X United States Steel
0.8x5.01%US$12.42b
NVL Novelis
0.7xn/aUS$11.70b
TX Ternium
0.7x5.40%US$11.41b
MP 23.2xIndustry Avg. 3.3xNo. of Companies38PS048121620+
38 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (23.2x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (3.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio23.2x
Fair PS Ratio7.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (23.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (7.2x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$54.30
US$75.38
+38.81%
13.84%US$100.00US$58.00n/a16
Sep ’27US$53.74
US$75.38
+40.26%
13.84%US$100.00US$58.00n/a16
Aug ’27US$41.37
US$77.78
+88.01%
13.39%US$100.00US$60.00n/a16
Jul ’27US$54.28
US$80.44
+48.19%
9.41%US$100.00US$69.00n/a16
Jun ’27US$69.29
US$80.44
+16.09%
9.41%US$100.00US$69.00n/a16
May ’27US$66.63
US$78.00
+17.06%
10.42%US$90.00US$62.00n/a13
Apr ’27US$48.41
US$78.38
+61.92%
9.45%US$94.00US$65.00n/a13
Mar ’27US$58.87
US$78.57
+33.47%
9.06%US$94.00US$65.00n/a14
Feb ’27US$58.77
US$79.14
+34.67%
8.07%US$94.00US$69.00n/a14
Jan ’27US$50.52
US$79.29
+56.94%
7.80%US$94.00US$71.00n/a14
Dec ’26US$58.10
US$79.11
+36.16%
8.15%US$94.00US$68.50n/a14
Nov ’26US$63.09
US$80.71
+27.93%
13.61%US$112.00US$68.00n/a12
Oct ’26US$67.63
US$77.73
+14.93%
8.27%US$90.00US$65.00n/a11
Sep ’26US$71.14
US$72.00
+1.21%
20.11%US$85.00US$32.00US$53.7410
Aug ’26US$63.69
US$56.80
-10.82%
27.93%US$80.00US$30.00US$41.3710
Jul ’26US$31.49
US$29.80
-5.37%
23.96%US$42.00US$18.00US$54.2810
Jun ’26US$21.79
US$26.70
+22.53%
17.81%US$32.00US$18.00US$69.2910
May ’26US$24.34
US$26.60
+9.29%
15.48%US$32.00US$21.00US$66.6311
Apr ’26US$25.17
US$26.38
+4.82%
13.52%US$32.00US$21.60US$48.4112
Mar ’26US$24.01
US$25.22
+5.03%
12.49%US$30.00US$21.60US$58.8712
Feb ’26US$21.96
US$23.55
+7.24%
13.45%US$30.00US$18.00US$58.7712
Jan ’26US$15.60
US$23.09
+48.02%
14.37%US$30.00US$18.00US$50.5212
Dec ’25US$21.07
US$22.18
+5.24%
16.52%US$30.00US$16.00US$58.1012
Nov ’25US$18.23
US$20.80
+14.10%
20.70%US$30.00US$12.50US$63.0912
Oct ’25US$17.54
US$22.29
+27.09%
37.18%US$45.00US$12.50US$67.6312
Sep ’25US$12.90
US$21.46
+66.34%
39.57%US$45.00US$12.50US$71.1412
US$75.38
Fair Value
28.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
16
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2026/09/09 03:58
End of Day Share Price 2026/09/09 00:00
Earnings2026/06/30
Annual Earnings2025/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

MP Materials Corp. is covered by 24 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Benjamin KalloBaird
Richard GarchitorenaBarclays
Raj RayBMO Capital Markets Equity Research