MP Materials Corp.

NYSE:MP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.9b

MP Materials Valuation

Is MP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of MP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: MP ($18.23) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($0.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: MP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MP?

Key metric: As MP is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for MP. This is calculated by dividing MP's market cap by their current revenue.
What is MP's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio16.2x
SalesUS$184.07m
Market CapUS$2.94b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does MP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for MP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.7x
MTRN Materion
1.4x6.4%US$2.3b
NEXA Nexa Resources
0.4x0.004%US$1.0b
GSM Ferroglobe
0.5x5.3%US$843.6m
CMP Compass Minerals International
0.5x2.3%US$608.1m
MP MP Materials
16.2x37.3%US$2.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16.2x) compared to the peer average (0.7x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does MP's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

25 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TX Ternium
0.4x2.8%US$6.57b
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs
0.3x4.1%US$5.65b
ARNC Arconic
0.4x5.8%US$3.01b
CSTM Constellium
0.2x9.3%US$1.69b
MP 16.2xIndustry Avg. 1.3xNo. of Companies25PS0246810+
25 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16.2x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (1.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is MP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

MP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio16.2x
Fair PS Ratio3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: MP is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (16.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst MP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$18.23
US$22.01
+20.7%
15.9%US$30.00US$16.00n/a12
Nov ’25US$18.23
US$20.80
+14.1%
20.7%US$30.00US$12.50n/a12
Oct ’25US$17.54
US$22.29
+27.1%
37.2%US$45.00US$12.50n/a12
Sep ’25US$12.90
US$21.46
+66.3%
39.6%US$45.00US$12.50n/a12
Aug ’25US$12.68
US$22.46
+77.1%
37.0%US$45.00US$13.50n/a12
Jul ’25US$12.80
US$23.91
+86.8%
34.9%US$45.00US$13.50n/a11
Jun ’25US$16.22
US$24.18
+49.1%
33.6%US$45.00US$14.50n/a11
May ’25US$15.91
US$24.23
+52.3%
33.4%US$45.00US$15.00n/a11
Apr ’25US$15.08
US$24.77
+64.3%
30.6%US$45.00US$15.50n/a11
Mar ’25US$15.47
US$27.00
+74.5%
28.1%US$45.00US$17.00n/a11
Feb ’25US$16.16
US$28.82
+78.3%
28.5%US$45.00US$14.00n/a11
Jan ’25US$19.85
US$30.00
+51.1%
23.8%US$45.00US$18.00n/a12
Dec ’24US$16.90
US$30.67
+81.5%
23.2%US$45.00US$18.00n/a12
Nov ’24US$15.77
US$32.83
+108.2%
26.6%US$56.00US$24.00US$18.2312
Oct ’24US$19.10
US$33.83
+77.1%
23.6%US$56.00US$24.00US$17.5412
Sep ’24US$21.51
US$33.83
+57.3%
23.6%US$56.00US$24.00US$12.9012
Aug ’24US$23.08
US$34.91
+51.3%
23.2%US$56.00US$24.00US$12.6811
Jul ’24US$22.88
US$35.36
+54.6%
22.8%US$56.00US$26.00US$12.8011
Jun ’24US$20.93
US$35.45
+69.4%
22.7%US$56.00US$26.00US$16.2211
May ’24US$21.56
US$39.18
+81.7%
19.6%US$56.00US$28.00US$15.9111
Apr ’24US$28.19
US$43.45
+54.1%
14.4%US$56.00US$34.00US$15.0811
Mar ’24US$35.82
US$44.41
+24.0%
12.8%US$56.00US$34.00US$15.4711
Feb ’24US$33.78
US$44.14
+30.7%
12.9%US$56.00US$36.00US$16.1611
Jan ’24US$24.28
US$44.32
+82.5%
13.0%US$56.00US$36.00US$19.8511
Dec ’23US$32.93
US$44.79
+36.0%
12.8%US$56.00US$36.00US$16.9012
Nov ’23US$31.55
US$45.46
+44.1%
14.7%US$58.00US$36.00US$15.7712

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

Discover undervalued companies

Ecora Resources

UK£159.8m

Operates as a natural resource royalty and streaming company in Australia, North and South America, Europe, and internationally.

ECRA.F

UK£0.85

7D

10.4%

1Y

-22.7%

Huntsman

US$3.3b

Manufactures and sells diversified organic chemical products worldwide.

HUN

US$19.42

7D

-1.3%

1Y

-22.1%

Chemtrade Logistics Income Fund

CA$1.4b

Offers industrial chemicals and services in Canada, the United States, and South America.

CGIF.F

CA$8.20

7D

4.0%

1Y

30.0%