Ferroglobe PLC

NasdaqCM:GSM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$794.8m

Ferroglobe Valuation

Is GSM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GSM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GSM ($4.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($12.06)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GSM is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GSM?

Key metric: As GSM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GSM. This is calculated by dividing GSM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GSM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio21x
EarningsUS$40.55m
Market CapUS$794.75m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GSM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GSM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average72.1x
EUBG Entrepreneur Universe Bright Group
196.3xn/aUS$362.2m
MTRN Materion
31.6x27.4%US$2.4b
IDR Idaho Strategic Resources
23.6x30.3%US$150.0m
RYI Ryerson Holding
36.7xn/aUS$786.0m
GSM Ferroglobe
21x49.4%US$794.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x) compared to the peer average (72.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GSM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Metals and Mining Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
VITF.F Victoria Gold
2.1xn/aUS$23.43m
BMXI Brookmount Explorations
0.7xn/aUS$6.14m
RMRI Rocky Mountain Industrials
0.9xn/aUS$1.76m
ZCRM.F Zincore Metals
0.5xn/aUS$852.33k
GSM 21.0xIndustry Avg. 19.1xNo. of Companies5PE01020304050+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GSM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x) compared to the US Metals and Mining industry average (18.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GSM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GSM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio21x
Fair PE Ratio31.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GSM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (31.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GSM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$4.53
US$9.00
+98.7%
22.2%US$11.00US$7.00n/a2
Nov ’25US$4.21
US$9.00
+113.8%
22.2%US$11.00US$7.00n/a2
Oct ’25US$4.96
US$9.00
+81.5%
22.2%US$11.00US$7.00n/a2
Sep ’25US$4.42
US$9.00
+103.6%
22.2%US$11.00US$7.00n/a2
Aug ’25US$5.16
US$10.00
+93.8%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Jul ’25US$5.49
US$10.00
+82.1%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Jun ’25US$5.95
US$10.00
+68.1%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
May ’25US$5.21
US$10.00
+91.9%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Apr ’25US$4.76
US$10.00
+110.1%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Mar ’25US$4.55
US$10.00
+119.8%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Feb ’25US$5.08
US$10.00
+96.9%
10.0%US$11.00US$9.00n/a2
Jan ’25US$6.51
US$11.50
+76.7%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00n/a2
Dec ’24US$6.12
US$11.50
+87.9%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00n/a2
Nov ’24US$4.45
US$11.50
+158.4%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00US$4.212
Oct ’24US$5.20
US$11.50
+121.2%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00US$4.962
Sep ’24US$5.39
US$11.50
+113.4%
4.3%US$12.00US$11.00US$4.422
Aug ’24US$5.39
US$12.50
+131.9%
12.0%US$14.00US$11.00US$5.162
Jul ’24US$4.77
US$12.50
+162.1%
12.0%US$14.00US$11.00US$5.492
Jun ’24US$4.49
US$12.50
+178.4%
12.0%US$14.00US$11.00US$5.952
May ’24US$4.09
US$12.50
+205.6%
12.0%US$14.00US$11.00US$5.212
Apr ’24US$4.94
US$12.50
+153.0%
12.0%US$14.00US$11.00US$4.762
Mar ’24US$5.29
US$12.50
+136.3%
12.0%US$14.00US$11.00US$4.552
Feb ’24US$4.70
US$12.00
+155.3%
16.7%US$14.00US$10.00US$5.082
Jan ’24US$3.85
US$12.00
+211.7%
16.7%US$14.00US$10.00US$6.512
Dec ’23US$4.60
US$12.00
+160.9%
16.7%US$14.00US$10.00US$6.122
Nov ’23US$5.97
US$13.00
+117.8%
7.7%US$14.00US$12.00US$4.452

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but there are not enough analysts covering the stock to determine statistical confidence in agreement.

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