Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) Could Be A Buy For Its Upcoming Dividend

Regular readers will know that we love our dividends at Simply Wall St, which is why it's exciting to see The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) is about to trade ex-dividend in the next four days. The ex-dividend date is one business day before the record date, which is the cut-off date for shareholders to be present on the company's books to be eligible for a dividend payment. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. In other words, investors can purchase Mosaic's shares before the 2nd of March in order to be eligible for the dividend, which will be paid on the 17th of March.

The company's next dividend payment will be US$0.11 per share, on the back of last year when the company paid a total of US$0.45 to shareholders. Last year's total dividend payments show that Mosaic has a trailing yield of 1.0% on the current share price of $45.35. We love seeing companies pay a dividend, but it's also important to be sure that laying the golden eggs isn't going to kill our golden goose! So we need to investigate whether Mosaic can afford its dividend, and if the dividend could grow.

View our latest analysis for Mosaic

Dividends are typically paid from company earnings. If a company pays more in dividends than it earned in profit, then the dividend could be unsustainable. Mosaic paid out just 5.9% of its profit last year, which we think is conservatively low and leaves plenty of margin for unexpected circumstances. Yet cash flows are even more important than profits for assessing a dividend, so we need to see if the company generated enough cash to pay its distribution. What's good is that dividends were well covered by free cash flow, with the company paying out 12% of its cash flow last year.

It's positive to see that Mosaic's dividend is covered by both profits and cash flow, since this is generally a sign that the dividend is sustainable, and a lower payout ratio usually suggests a greater margin of safety before the dividend gets cut.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Stocks in companies that generate sustainable earnings growth often make the best dividend prospects, as it is easier to lift the dividend when earnings are rising. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. That's why it's comforting to see Mosaic's earnings have been skyrocketing, up 39% per annum for the past five years. Mosaic looks like a real growth company, with earnings per share growing at a cracking pace and the company reinvesting most of its profits in the business.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. In the last 10 years, Mosaic has lifted its dividend by approximately 8.4% a year on average. We're glad to see dividends rising alongside earnings over a number of years, which may be a sign the company intends to share the growth with shareholders.

To Sum It Up

Has Mosaic got what it takes to maintain its dividend payments? Mosaic has grown its earnings per share while simultaneously reinvesting in the business. Unfortunately it's cut the dividend at least once in the past 10 years, but the conservative payout ratio makes the current dividend look sustainable. There's a lot to like about Mosaic, and we would prioritise taking a closer look at it.

On that note, you'll want to research what risks Mosaic is facing. Be aware that Mosaic is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those is significant...

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.