Is Mosaic (MOS) Undervalued After Recent Share Price Weakness? A Fresh Look at Its Valuation

Mosaic (MOS) has been sliding lately, with shares down about 9 % over the past month and roughly 26 % in the past 3 months, raising fresh questions about valuation and cycle timing.

See our latest analysis for Mosaic.

That recent slide fits a broader picture of fading momentum, with a roughly flat year to date share price return but a much weaker three year total shareholder return driven by softer fertilizer pricing and cyclical worries about farm spending.

If Mosaic’s downturn has you reassessing your exposure, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership that might offer stronger momentum and alignment with management.

With earnings under pressure but shares trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates, the key question now is whether Mosaic is a bargain in a tough cycle or a stock already reflecting limited future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 31.6% Undervalued

Based on the most widely followed narrative, Mosaic’s fair value of $35.22 sits well above the recent $24.10 close, framing a sizable upside gap.

Entry into premium/value-added segments such as specialty fertilizers and biosciences (with Biosciences business expected to be EBITDA positive in Q4 and new product launches accelerating in 2026+) enables Mosaic to achieve higher average selling prices and expand gross margin over time.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why modest revenue growth, slimmer margins, and a richer future earnings multiple still point to upside? The valuation hinges on surprisingly assertive long term assumptions that you will want to unpack.

Result: Fair Value of $35.22 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent pricing pressure and stricter environmental regulation could quickly undermine margin gains, which would challenge the idea that Mosaic’s current discount really signals mispricing.

Find out about the key risks to this Mosaic narrative.

Build Your Own Mosaic Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Mosaic research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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