Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE:LPX) Yearly Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

It's been a mediocre week for Louisiana-Pacific Corporation (NYSE:LPX) shareholders, with the stock dropping 12% to US$98.71 in the week since its latest annual results. Louisiana-Pacific reported US$2.9b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.89 beat expectations, being 2.3% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Louisiana-Pacific

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Louisiana-Pacific's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$3.01b in 2025. This would reflect a modest 2.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to fall 12% to US$5.29 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.06b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$5.43 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$110, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Louisiana-Pacific analyst has a price target of US$137 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$71.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Louisiana-Pacific's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Louisiana-Pacific's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 2.3% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 1.9% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see revenue growth of 3.1% annually. It seems obvious that, while the future growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, Louisiana-Pacific is expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Louisiana-Pacific. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$110, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Louisiana-Pacific analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether Louisiana-Pacific is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.