Stock Analysis

Despite lower earnings than a year ago, International Paper (NYSE:IP) investors are up 61% since then

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NYSE:IP

These days it's easy to simply buy an index fund, and your returns should (roughly) match the market. But you can significantly boost your returns by picking above-average stocks. To wit, the International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) share price is 54% higher than it was a year ago, much better than the market return of around 32% (not including dividends) in the same period. That's a solid performance by our standards! The longer term returns have not been as good, with the stock price only 24% higher than it was three years ago.

In light of the stock dropping 3.5% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive one-year return.

See our latest analysis for International Paper

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During the last year, International Paper actually saw its earnings per share drop 44%.

Given the share price gain, we doubt the market is measuring progress with EPS. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

Unfortunately International Paper's fell 4.2% over twelve months. So using a snapshot of key business metrics doesn't give us a good picture of why the market is bidding up the stock.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

NYSE:IP Earnings and Revenue Growth December 8th 2024

International Paper is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for International Paper the TSR over the last 1 year was 61%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that International Paper shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 61% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 10% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand International Paper better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for International Paper you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.