ICL Group Ltd Just Beat EPS By 32%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

ICL Group Ltd (NYSE:ICL) last week reported its latest third-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$1.8b were what the analysts expected, ICL Group surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$0.09 per share, an impressive 32% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for ICL Group

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ICL Group's six analysts is for revenues of US$7.35b in 2025. This reflects a modest 6.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.8% to US$0.32. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$7.38b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.33 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at US$4.74, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic ICL Group analyst has a price target of US$5.50 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$4.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that ICL Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.8% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 10% over the past five years. Compare this to the 127 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 4.5% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like ICL Group is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ICL Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple ICL Group analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for ICL Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.