Did Analyst Downgrade and Estimates Shift Cleveland-Cliffs' (CLF) Investment Narrative Ahead of Q3 Earnings?

• Cleveland-Cliffs recently announced it will release its third-quarter 2025 earnings results before the U.S. market open on October 20, 2025, and will host a live webcast with securities analysts and institutional investors that morning.
• Amid heightened analyst scrutiny, Cleveland-Cliffs has seen negative earnings estimate revisions and a Zacks Rank downgrade, fueling significant investor attention and speculation around its near-term performance.
• We'll explore how the recent analyst sentiment downgrade and negative earnings estimates may reshape Cleveland-Cliffs' broader investment narrative.

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Cleveland-Cliffs Investment Narrative Recap

To own Cleveland-Cliffs stock, investors need to believe in the resilience of US steel demand, supported by continued trade protections and reshoring trends. The recent negative earnings revisions and Zacks Rank downgrade may reinforce concerns about weaker short-term volumes and profits, but unless there are changes in underlying government policy, they do not materially alter the most important catalyst, domestic steel demand recovery, or the core risk tied to trade policy uncertainty.

Among recent announcements, Cleveland-Cliffs' September refinancing deal, issuing US$850 million in Senior Guaranteed Notes, stands out. This move temporarily boosts liquidity and gives the company more time to execute cost reductions and asset sales, both critical supports if steel demand and pricing remain pressured.

Yet, for all these financial maneuvers, the greater risk that investors should be aware of could emerge if US steel import tariffs face policy changes...

Read the full narrative on Cleveland-Cliffs (it's free!)

Cleveland-Cliffs' outlook forecasts $22.5 billion in revenue and $590.0 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario assumes annual revenue growth of 6.8% and an earnings increase of $2.29 billion from current earnings of -$1.7 billion.

Uncover how Cleveland-Cliffs' forecasts yield a $11.57 fair value, a 9% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members have issued nine individual fair value estimates ranging from US$1.74 to US$56.79 per share. While perspectives differ widely, policy shifts around steel trade protections remain a pivotal theme shaping future performance.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Cleveland-Cliffs - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Cleveland-Cliffs Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Cleveland-Cliffs research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Cleveland-Cliffs research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Cleveland-Cliffs' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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