Results: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

As you might know, Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) just kicked off its latest yearly results with some very strong numbers. Results were good overall, with revenues beating analyst predictions by 4.9% to hit US$3.5b. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in at US$49.30, some 8.8% above whatthe analysts had expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the dual analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources, is for revenues of US$3.21b in 2024. This implies a perceptible 7.5% reduction in Alpha Metallurgical Resources' revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plummet 38% to US$34.51 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.99b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$31.60 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Alpha Metallurgical Resources 82% to US$399on the back of these upgrades.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.5% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 18% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.8% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that Alpha Metallurgical Resources' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Alpha Metallurgical Resources' earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates it is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Alpha Metallurgical Resources (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.