Earnings Update: Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) Just Reported And Analysts Are Trimming Their Forecasts

Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) missed earnings with its latest first-quarter results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. It was a pretty negative result overall, with revenues of US$532m missing analyst predictions by 7.2%. Worse, the business reported a statutory loss of US$2.60 per share, much larger than the analysts had forecast prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

Our free stock report includes 1 warning sign investors should be aware of before investing in Alpha Metallurgical Resources. Read for free now.

Following the recent earnings report, the consensus from dual analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources is for revenues of US$2.25b in 2025. This implies a not inconsiderable 14% decline in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$5.36 per share in 2025. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$2.59b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.23 in 2025. So we can see that the consensus has become notably more bearish on Alpha Metallurgical Resources' outlook following these results, with a real cut to next year's revenue estimates. Furthermore, they expect the business to be loss-making next year, compared to their previous calls for a profit.

View our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources

The consensus price target fell 33% to US$183, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 19% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Alpha Metallurgical Resources' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Alpha Metallurgical Resources dropped from profits to a loss next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have analyst estimates for Alpha Metallurgical Resources going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 1 warning sign for Alpha Metallurgical Resources you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.