Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP): Losses Deepen 15.2% Annually, Profitability Forecast by 2027 Spurs Debate

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP) remains unprofitable, with losses having deepened at a rate of 15.2% per year over the past five years. Looking ahead, analysts expect the company to turn things around within the next three years, projecting 92.65% annual earnings growth and a 3% yearly revenue climb. However, that is slower than the broader US market’s anticipated 10% pace. For investors, the combination of forecasted profit potential and the company’s value pricing is likely to keep AMBP in focus as expectations take center stage this earnings season.

See our full analysis for Ardagh Metal Packaging.

Next up, we will see how AMBP’s latest results stack up with the most widely followed narratives and which investment stories hold up under the numbers.

See what the community is saying about Ardagh Metal Packaging

Margins Expected to Turn Positive by 2027

• Profit margins are forecasted to rise from the current -0.3% to 2.9% in three years, suggesting that improved operational efficiency is projected to shift the business from losses to profitability for the first time since its listing.
• According to the analysts' consensus view, this shift is underpinned by ongoing capacity expansion and plant utilization improvements, both of which are driving down unit costs and supporting higher EBITDA margins.
• Consensus notes strong demand for sustainable packaging, particularly in North America and Europe, is expected to further lift future margins.
• Improvements in innovation and new product offerings are also highlighted as margin drivers by consensus.
• Consensus narrative highlights these margin shifts as a key reason why bulls see a turning point on the horizon, but also flags that persistent high leverage could limit upside if rate or raw material shocks hit.

See how analysts interpret AMBP’s financial turnaround. Discover the full narrative and what could shift sentiment in the coming quarters. 📊 Read the full Ardagh Metal Packaging Consensus Narrative.

High Leverage and Dividend Sustainability Risks Loom

• Net leverage stands at 5.3x adjusted EBITDA, and is projected to remain around 5x at year end, exposing AMBP to risks from rising interest rates and refinancing challenges.
• Bears argue these financial pressures pose ongoing concerns for dividend sustainability and future cash flow strength.
• Critics highlight the risk that inability to fully pass through higher input costs or sudden moves in aluminum prices could erode margins and worsen cash burn.
• The consensus view notes that tightening capacity in Europe and regional demand swings, like weaker Brazilian industry growth, could cap revenue and strain the balance sheet further if not offset by gains elsewhere.

Shares Trade at Discount to Peer and Fair Value Benchmarks

• AMBP’s price-to-sales ratio sits at 0.5x, below both its peer average of 0.8x and the industry’s 0.9x, while the current share price of $4.02 also trades at a significant discount to the DCF fair value of $9.85.
• According to the consensus narrative, this discount reflects a mix of risks and rewards.
• While strong shipment growth and improved financial flexibility justify a higher valuation if future profits materialize, analysts see regional stagnation and regulatory threats as reasons for a cautious market stance.
• Consensus points to a potential rebound if margin targets are met and debt levels stabilize, but warns that missed guidance or delayed pass-through of costs could dampen any rerating.

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Ardagh Metal Packaging on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

Think you spot a different story in the numbers? Take just a few minutes to shape your own perspective and put your narrative together. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Ardagh Metal Packaging research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

High leverage, persistent balance sheet strain, and ongoing dividend sustainability risks threaten AMBP’s turnaround even if margins improve as forecasted.

If you want to avoid balance sheet headaches and find sturdier alternatives, check out solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (1982 results) that feature stronger finances and lower debt risk.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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