Ardagh Metal Packaging Valuation
Is AMBP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of AMBP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: AMBP ($3.6) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($9.42)
Significantly Below Fair Value: AMBP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AMBP?
Key metric: As AMBP is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is AMBP's PS Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PS Ratio | 0.4x |
| Sales | US$4.85b |
| Market Cap | US$2.15b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 9.2x |
| PEG Ratio | n/a |
Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers
How does AMBP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PS | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 0.8x | ||
OI O-I Glass | 0.3x | 1.5% | US$1.9b |
GEF Greif | 0.6x | 4.6% | US$3.3b |
TRS TriMas | 1.2x | 5.2% | US$1.1b |
SLGN Silgan Holdings | 1x | 5.3% | US$5.8b |
AMBP Ardagh Metal Packaging | 0.4x | 3.5% | US$2.2b |
Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AMBP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry
How does AMBP's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Packaging Industry?
| 1 Company | Price / Sales | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
OCTO Eightco Holdings | 0.07x | n/a | US$2.74m |
| 1 Company | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|
Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AMBP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the US Packaging industry average (0.9x).
Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is AMBP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PS Ratio | 0.4x |
| Fair PS Ratio | 0.7x |
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AMBP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | US$3.60 | US$4.16 +15.5% | 14.9% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Nov ’25 | US$3.64 | US$4.16 +14.2% | 14.9% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Oct ’25 | US$3.79 | US$3.81 +0.4% | 9.3% | US$4.25 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Sep ’25 | US$3.58 | US$3.79 +6.0% | 9.6% | US$4.25 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Aug ’25 | US$3.52 | US$3.79 +7.8% | 9.6% | US$4.25 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Jul ’25 | US$3.36 | US$3.98 +18.3% | 14.3% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Jun ’25 | US$3.95 | US$3.98 +0.6% | 14.3% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| May ’25 | US$3.96 | US$3.98 +0.4% | 14.3% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Apr ’25 | US$3.42 | US$3.88 +13.3% | 14.8% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 8 |
| Mar ’25 | US$3.22 | US$4.04 +25.6% | 14.3% | US$5.00 | US$3.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Feb ’25 | US$3.73 | US$4.27 +14.5% | 8.4% | US$5.00 | US$4.00 | n/a | 7 |
| Jan ’25 | US$3.84 | US$3.99 +3.9% | 3.3% | US$4.20 | US$3.75 | n/a | 6 |
| Dec ’24 | US$4.08 | US$3.99 -2.2% | 3.3% | US$4.20 | US$3.75 | n/a | 6 |
| Nov ’24 | US$3.38 | US$3.73 +10.2% | 11.0% | US$4.00 | US$2.95 | US$3.64 | 6 |
| Oct ’24 | US$3.13 | US$4.28 +36.8% | 12.1% | US$5.00 | US$3.70 | US$3.79 | 6 |
| Sep ’24 | US$3.60 | US$4.53 +25.8% | 17.0% | US$6.00 | US$3.70 | US$3.58 | 7 |
| Aug ’24 | US$3.68 | US$4.53 +23.1% | 17.0% | US$6.00 | US$3.70 | US$3.52 | 7 |
| Jul ’24 | US$3.76 | US$5.28 +40.5% | 24.1% | US$8.00 | US$4.00 | US$3.36 | 8 |
| Jun ’24 | US$3.72 | US$5.16 +38.7% | 24.1% | US$8.00 | US$4.00 | US$3.95 | 9 |
| May ’24 | US$3.93 | US$5.47 +39.2% | 21.5% | US$8.00 | US$4.00 | US$3.96 | 8 |
| Apr ’24 | US$4.08 | US$5.66 +38.6% | 20.4% | US$8.00 | US$4.00 | US$3.42 | 8 |
| Mar ’24 | US$4.58 | US$5.73 +25.0% | 18.9% | US$8.00 | US$4.00 | US$3.22 | 8 |
| Feb ’24 | US$5.77 | US$5.81 +0.6% | 19.1% | US$8.00 | US$4.00 | US$3.73 | 8 |
| Jan ’24 | US$4.81 | US$5.56 +15.6% | 22.0% | US$8.00 | US$3.75 | US$3.84 | 9 |
| Dec ’23 | US$4.51 | US$5.78 +28.2% | 29.8% | US$10.00 | US$3.75 | US$4.08 | 9 |
| Nov ’23 | US$4.40 | US$5.78 +31.4% | 29.8% | US$10.00 | US$3.75 | US$3.38 | 9 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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