Century Aluminum (CENX) Is Down 5.1% After Grundartangi Smelter Halt Disrupts Production and Supply Chains

• Century Aluminum announced that its subsidiary, Norðurál Grundartangi in Iceland, temporarily reduced production to one-third following an electrical equipment failure at the Grundartangi plant on October 21, 2025.
• This disruption not only affects Century Aluminum’s operations but also impacts Eimskip’s transport volumes, highlighting Nordural’s importance within both supply chains.
• We will explore how the unexpected halt at the Grundartangi smelter impacts Century Aluminum’s future production and earnings outlook.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To be a shareholder in Century Aluminum, you generally need to believe in sustained high U.S. aluminum demand, stable tariffs, and the company’s ability to expand capacity while controlling costs. The recent operational halt at Grundartangi creates immediate uncertainty around short-term production and margin catalysts, while also heightening exposure to risks linked to supply interruptions and earnings volatility, especially until the duration of this downtime becomes clear.

Among recent announcements, Century’s October 6 decision to restart the Mt. Holly smelter and secure long-term power supply stands out as most relevant. This move signals ongoing efforts to grow U.S. production and capture tariff-driven premiums, but now takes on added importance as Grundartangi’s output faces disruption and uncertainties weigh on the near-term earnings outlook.

However, investors should also consider that periods of unexpected plant outages can suddenly reveal how sensitive the business remains to operational setbacks and...

Read the full narrative on Century Aluminum (it's free!)

Century Aluminum's outlook projects $3.0 billion in revenue and $479.3 million in earnings by 2028. This is based on analysts' assumptions of 7.6% annual revenue growth and a $367.9 million increase in earnings from the current $111.4 million.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $31.67 fair value, a 3% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span US$22.13 to US$70.96 based on three perspectives. This diversity of opinion comes as supply interruptions remain a key risk that could influence Century Aluminum’s performance going forward, reviewing multiple viewpoints can be invaluable.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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