Century Aluminum (CENX): Exploring Valuation as Shares Surge on Recent Momentum

Century Aluminum (CENX) has recently caught the attention of investors looking for momentum among industrial stocks. Over the past month, shares have advanced by 10%, and the past 3 months show an even stronger trend upward.

See our latest analysis for Century Aluminum.

This new surge comes after a year when Century Aluminum has delivered a remarkable 71.7% share price return year to date, and an impressive 68.9% total shareholder return over the past year. Momentum appears to be building, with investors showing renewed confidence amid ongoing growth and a changing outlook for industrials.

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But with shares climbing so fast, investors are left wondering if the fundamentals can justify this momentum or if the market has already factored in all the upside, leaving little room for new buyers to benefit.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.8% Undervalued

Century Aluminum's widely followed narrative assigns a fair value of $31.67, just above the last close at $30.79. The share price is inching closer to what analysts see as justified, setting up a new tension for investors focused on future catalysts.

The expansion and restart of Mt. Holly, along with progress on a new U.S. smelter, positions Century Aluminum to meaningfully increase U.S. primary aluminum production. This allows the company to capture rising domestic demand driven by reshoring of supply chains and incentivized by government tariffs and trade protections, supporting future revenue growth and improved fixed cost absorption, therefore enhancing net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

What big assumptions are behind these numbers? The narrative is built around expansion bets, government policies, and shifting supply chains. But the story’s real twist is in bold projections for profits and margins that could remake market expectations. Get the full perspective and uncover what’s really fueling this target.

Result: Fair Value of $31.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing policy changes or any spikes in raw material costs could quickly undermine the growth narrative and reverse Century Aluminum’s recent momentum.

Find out about the key risks to this Century Aluminum narrative.

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

If you'd rather investigate the trends firsthand or craft a different thesis, it only takes minutes to assemble a custom outlook. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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